268 
FXUS61 KCLE 082352
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
652 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will impact the area through Wednesday. A ridge will 
build into the region from the southwest Wednesday night into 
Thursday and a warm front will lift north across the area on 
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Current forecast still holds. Only minor change was made to
cloud cover for tomorrow as most model guidance had more cloud
cover sticking around for longer than previously thought.

Previous Discussion...
A trough will deepen across the eastern Great Lakes tonight 
through Wednesday. Widespread cloud cover is present across the 
forecast area at the moment, but dry weather is expected in most
areas through most of this evening. Westerly to southwesterly 
flow combined with low-level moisture and lift from the trough 
will produce lake effect precipitation in northwestern PA 
starting tonight. The best chance of snow will be in interior PA
and rain or a rain/snow mix will be more likely along the 
lakeshore. Any snow should transition to rain or a rain/snow mix
by late Wednesday morning as surface temperatures warm above 
freezing and snow accumulation will remain below an inch. PoPs 
will gradually decrease Thursday evening as ridging develops 
across the area. Dry weather is expected outside of the snowbelt
region Wednesday, although mostly cloudy skies will stick 
around for most of the day. 

Temperatures will warm to above average low to mid 40s by 
Wednesday afternoon. Interior NW PA will likely remain in the 
mid 30s. Overnight lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in 
the upper 20s to lower 30s, with slightly warmer minimum temps 
in the mid to upper 30s along the immediate lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over eastern Ohio Thursday morning will move off the 
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday morning. This will allow moisture 
levels to increase ahead of low pressure that will move to near the 
lower Ohio River Valley Friday night. It appears that all locations 
will be dry through Friday evening but PoPs gradually increase 
across NW OH as we approach sunrise Saturday morning. 

Highs in the 40's Thursday but warming into the 50's for most 
locations on Friday. Lows Thursday night in the upper 20's to mid 
30's. Warmer Friday night with mid 30's to lower 40's
anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will move into the central Great Lakes on Saturday with 
increasing chances of showers from west to east through the 
afternoon. All locations should see a period of rain Saturday night 
then gradually end from west to east on Sunday. However some lake 
effect rain/snow showers will impact NE OH/NW PA into Monday. Any 
snow looks minimal at this point but we will need to monitor. Models 
then differ significantly Monday into Tuesday with no confidence in 
any of the solutions. Changes will occur as models become more 
consistent over the next few days. 

Saturday remains warm with highs around 50. Cooler Sunday with highs 
in the lower 40's. Highs in the 30's look to be possible Monday into 
Tuesday. Lows Saturday night in the 30's then cooler Sunday and 
Monday nights with lows in the 20's.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A surface trough will approach the area late tonight, lingering
across the region through the day tomorrow. Low-level moisture
across the region has resulted in widespread cloud cover with
ceilings generally around 2 to 3 kft. As the surface trough
approaches from the northwest tonight, light lake effect showers
are expected to develop, mainly affecting KERI late tonight
through the day Wednesday. At KERI precipitation type expected
to begin as a rain/snow mix (though leaning towards snow at 
this point) before transitioning to all rain late Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon. No snow accumulations are
expected, though it could be a bit icy early Wednesday morning
if temperatures are cool enough (currently projecting a low of
34 at KERI). Showers will slowly diminish Wednesday
evening/night. MVFR ceilings will stick around through Wednesday
before beginning to diminish from west to east late Wednesday
afternoon. KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, and KCLE have a shot at becoming
VFR before the end of their TAF period, though less confidence
at KCLE.

Currently, southwest winds are around 8 to 10 knots with no 
notable gusts. Those winds are expected to pickup in the next 
few hours to around 10 to 13 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 
knots. KERI may be a tad higher being closer to the stronger 
winds over Lake Erie.

Outlook...Widespread rain may be accompanied by non-VFR Friday 
night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Clipper storm system will move across Ontario overnight with a cold 
front moving across the region. Winds will increase from the 
southwest ahead of it then become more westerly in its wake. Speeds 
increase enough to get 20+ knots for most locations. This along with 
a longer fetch should build waves to at least 3 to 5 feet for most 
locations east of the Islands. Will make no change to the small 
craft advisory that is already in place. 

High pressure returns Wednesday night into Thursday but it will 
quickly move east by Thursday evening. This will allow a southerly 
wind to persist into Friday. The next area of low pressure begins to 
impact the region Friday night as it moves to near the lower Ohio 
River Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ143>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines/Saunders
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...MM