139 
FXUS62 KTAE 061501
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1001 AM EST Sun Dec 6 2020

.UPDATE...

No changes were made from the previous forecast. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [548 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Some changes are on the way over the next 24 hours as a well defined 
upper level low over Texas moves eastward. Practically, this system 
will not be very impactful with just light showers expected to 
overspread the area mainly during the overnight hours. The system 
has to overcome a lot of dry air ahead of it, which the 00z KTAE 
sounding shows well with a preciptable water value of only 0.41 
inches and very dry air from around 500 mb down to the surface. 

The system is interesting from a verification standpoint as some of 
the PoP guidance is quite low, despite the expectation of a high 
PoP, low rain total event. The official forecast rain chances are 
above the NBM guidance and closer to other higher guidance with the 
expectation that the system is strong enough to overcome the dry air 
and will likely produce measurable rainfall (although quite light) 
for a large portion of the area tonight. We'll likely see a lot of 
rain aloft approaching from the west initially that will not all 
be reaching the ground, but eventually it will tonight as the 
atmosphere gradually moistens. Total rainfall amounts are expected
to be around a tenth of an inch or less for most locations. High 
temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s this 
afternoon with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 
50s.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

A shortwave will swing down from the Ohio Valley through the mid-
Atlantic states Monday. As this shortwave moves east, another 
impulse will drop southward from the Upper Midwest into the 
southeast CONUS Monday night through Tuesday. These two features 
will effectively further amplify the long wave trough down the 
Atlantic seaboard and bring a re-enforcement of colder and drier air 
to our forecast area. Monday's high temps will range from the 
upper 50s to lower 60s and in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday. Lows 
Monday night will be in the lower to mid 30s with some of the 
normally colder locations at or just below freezing. Areas of 
frost are also possible mainly across our GA and AL zones and 
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Upper troughing will continue through Wednesday followed by deep 
layer ridging moving in from the west Thursday through Friday. Over 
the weekend, a broad upper trough and associated cold front will 
move into and across our area bringing with it our next chance for 
rain. Lows will gradually moderate from the 30s Tuesday night to the 
50s by next weekend. Highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday and 
around 70 to lower 70s Friday through Sunday. Areas of frost will 
be possible Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the day. High cloudiness will gradually lower to an 
overcast mid-level cloud deck today as moisture increases ahead 
of an upper level low approaching from the west. By tonight, light
showers are expected to overspread the area from west to east 
with ceilings continuing to lower through MVFR and eventually IFR.


.MARINE...

Northerly winds will continue through the week with winds and seas 
increasing to cautionary levels Monday through Monday night as a 
cold front pushes through the local waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rain chances return to the area late today through Monday morning
ahead of a cold front. Rainfall amounts will generally be less 
than a quarter of an inch.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  50  61  36  56 /  10  60  10   0   0 
Panama City   64  50  61  39  58 /  20  70  10   0   0 
Dothan        62  44  57  33  54 /  10  60  10   0   0 
Albany        62  47  57  33  54 /   0  60  10   0   0 
Valdosta      64  49  61  34  55 /   0  60  10   0   0 
Cross City    66  52  63  36  57 /  10  60  20   0   0 
Apalachicola  64  51  62  39  57 /  10  70  10   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bunker
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Barry