494 
FXUS64 KMAF 042311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to impact FST around 18z and continuing
through most of the afternoon. There is a slight chance of low
ceilings for MAF Saturday afternoon but confidence is low. Winds
will be mostly light and variable. There is a chance of light rain
and snow for FST beginning around 12z to 18z. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Fri Dec 4 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows yesterday's main trough currently over the MS 
Valley.  The southern lobe which separated and closed over the 
southern border is now in eastern Sonora, and posed to pass right 
over the southern Big Bend at around 18Z Saturday.  Models have 
pretty much solidified on this solution over the past 24 hours, 
although antecedent moisture remains scant.  Forecast soundings in 
the Davis Mtns continue to saturate the column 06-12Z Sat to 400mb 
or so, but there are subtle differences in the models.  Both the NAM 
and the GFS show good lift in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), but 
the GFS shows best lift/saturation in the DGZ through the Davis 
Mtns, whereas the NAM hangs a little farther south.  However, the 
Canadian and ECMWF line up more with the GFS so the NAM is the 
outlier.  That said, best chances of snow continue to be the Davis 
Mtns through the Stockton Plateau, although confidence is higher at 
the higher elevations.  While moisture remains lacking, models 
signal a modest deformation band on the north side of the low, under 
which higher snowfall accumulations are anticipated.  Attm, the 
Winter Weather Advisory looks good, and we see no reason to alter 
snowfall accumulations much.

Precipitation will taper off quickly Saturday night as the trough 
ejects east, with a quick rebound to near-normal temperatures Sunday 
afternoon as weak ridging begins building into West Texas and 
Southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures will continue increasing through 
midweek under dirty ridging, w/Wednesday or Thursday topping out in 
the mid 60s most locations. 

Meanwhile, a cut-off low will be shaping up off the coast of Baja, 
them moving through the region sometime after Thursday.  Models 
still handle this differently, w/the GFS outrunning the ECMWF, which 
is slightly faster than the Canadian.  However, all bring in a cold 
front late in the week, and perhaps some -SHRA.  We'll tone down 
precip chances in the extended until models come into better 
alignment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  49  32  60 /   0  20  10   0 
Carlsbad                       27  55  29  62 /   0  10   0   0 
Dryden                         36  48  33  65 /  20  50   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  31  45  31  61 /  10  50   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 32  49  32  55 /   0  10   0   0 
Hobbs                          25  53  30  61 /   0  10  10   0 
Marfa                          25  43  22  57 /  20  60   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           28  48  31  60 /   0  30  10   0 
Odessa                         29  48  31  61 /   0  30  10   0 
Wink                           27  51  28  62 /   0  20  10   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST 
     Saturday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Reeves County Plains.

&&

$$

99/99/99