297 
FXUS63 KOAX 041028
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
428 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CST Fri Dec 4 2020

A dry forecast continues for the next seven days. 

A PV trof southeast of the area is producing some showers in the
Ohio River valley while a dominating ridge continues over the 
Rockies. 

That persistent ridging over the western CONUS leaves Nebraska 
and Iowa under dry northwesterly flow. Northwesterly flow in this 
instance will provide warm air advection thanks to some 
downsloping winds from the Rockies. Climatological temps at 700mb 
will be the warmest in over 40 years across Montana and in the 
90th percentile at times over the Dakotas and Nebraska over the 
next five days. 

Continued sunshine and that anamolous WAA from the northwest will
drive temps near 50F in western Iowa and low to mid-50s for
eastern Nebraska today... improving on the widespread 40s of 
Thursday.

A low level shortwave taps into some cooler temps from NNE for
Saturday, but numbers don't slip enough to fall below seasonal
averages. A PV anamoly at 500mb will streak through on Sunday, but
it doesn't seem to have enough moisture to produce any showers. 

With climatological mid-level temps above 80th percentile, a
snow-free Upper Plains, persistent drough and plenty of sun have
opted to push temps higher today through Wednesday, pushing
numbers close to 75th percentile of ensembles each day. This 
brings a return to 50s on Tuesday and 60s popping up in spots on 
Wednesday. 

A cold front knocks temps down Thursday. 

A closed low off the west coast ejects through the central CONUS
late *next* week and provides our only real hope for showers. 
Odds don't look great at this point and timing varies from model 
to model but the dry state of affairs leaves us hoping for a 
wintry mix on day 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Expect light winds
overnight to become northwesterly but remain around 10 kts during
the day.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Pearson