686 
FXUS64 KFWD 040009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
609 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Through Friday Evening/

North and Central Texas remains beneath a blanket of widespread
stratus clouds this evening with temperatures in the 40s. Overcast
skies will persist through most of tonight, but a gradual clearing
from southwest to northeast is expected after midnight. Mostly
clear skies across the Big Country and decreasing winds will
promote efficient radiational cooling and low temperatures will
fall into the mid to upper 20s by early Friday morning. A few
low-lying areas may even dip into the low 20s. Elsewhere, partly 
to mostly cloudy skies will keep lows in the 30s, with the 
freezing line mainly along the I-35 corridor.

There may be lingering cloud cover across East Texas Friday
morning, but these clouds should clear by the late morning hours.
The return of abundant sunshine will allow for highs to warm into
the 50s across the region Friday afternoon, slightly below-normal
for early December. Expect light northwest to west winds below 10
mph through the evening.

Garcia

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/ 

For the rest of the day, expect cool and cloudy conditions across
much of the area. Temperatures are currently hanging in the 40s, 
with a few upper 30s to the northwest and low 50s to the southeast
where the sun is sneaking in. We will stay well below normals for
early December, as the normal high for DFW Airport is 60 degrees 
and for Waco is 62 degrees. The chilly conditions continue tonight
as the clouds clear the area. Overnight lows will range from the 
upper 20s across western zones to low/mid 30s elsewhere. 

With the upper level low tracking east on Friday, we will stay under 
the dry northwest flow aloft most of the day. This will result in 
another cool day with highs in the 50s and west/northwest winds 5
to 10 mph.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/
/This Weekend and Next Week/

Tranquil weather is expected through the weekend and much of next
week due to the lack of appreciable deep-layer moisture. A cut off 
low currently deepening over Northern Mexico should swing through
South Texas Saturday night and Sunday. Little to no sensible
weather is expected, however, the low will bring an increase of 
mid level cloud cover to the area. Lift associated with the low 
will develop precip, however, a dry sub-cloud layer should prevent
much of this from reaching the surface. Most of the virga should 
occur in the early morning hours over Central Texas with a few 
sprinkles possible early Sunday morning. The low should kick east 
quickly and help send a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the 
region through the early parts of next week.

The global ensembles have been consistently developing a cut off
low over the Desert SW of the CONUS underneath a stout blocking 
ridge over the NW CONUS and Central Canada. Locally, NAEFS/ECMWF 
mean ensemble guidance is indicating a warming trend Wednesday and
Thursday of next week. Wednesday's trend will be largely due to 
warm advection aloft while Thursday's will be due to surface warm
and moist advection as a leeside low develops in the Central
Plains. This should eventually set the stage for our next weather 
producer to move through late Thursday into Friday as the cut off 
low moves overtop of the Plains.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The region remains beneath a widespread blanket of MVFR ceilings
this evening and should prevail over the next few hours. Most
guidance has been too quick in lifting ceilings to VFR for this
evening across the Metroplex, so opted to push back the timing to
03Z with a TEMPO group for any lingering low clouds. Across 
Central Texas, expect trends should continue to slowly improve as 
ceilings are just above 3000 feet at Waco. Cloud cover should 
clear from southwest to northeast overnight. VFR will prevail on 
Friday with light northwest winds below 10 knots.

Garcia


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    32  57  35  60  39 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Waco                32  57  33  61  39 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Paris               34  53  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Denton              28  57  29  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   5 
McKinney            31  56  32  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              34  57  37  61  41 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Terrell             33  55  32  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Corsicana           35  55  35  61  41 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Temple              32  58  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Mineral Wells       29  58  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$