National Weather Service Raw Text Product

545 
FXUS63 KOAX 020520
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1120 PM CST Tue Dec 1 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Dec 1 2020

Today through Thursday:
Uneventful weather still expected for the next 7 days. Biggest
forecast concern will be how far east the cold front travels
before it loses shape and mixes out. One front has already stalled
out over central Nebraska. There isn't much temperature difference
with that front, but there is a noticeable wind difference. As of
2 PM, the front stalled out between O'Neill and Norfolk. A strong
cold front is currently located in western South Dakota and will 
move into eastern Nebraska in the overnight hours. How far east 
and south it goes will be dependent on the low pressure systems on
the leeside of the Rockies. HRRR and RAP 500mb analysis show two 
separate low pressure minima. These minima are expected to 
continue their south-southwest trek along the Rocky Mountains. 
Model guidance suggest they'll stall out in northern Texas and 
northern New Mexico and undergo a bit of the Fujiwara effect 
(essentially, the low pressure centers will pinwheel around each 
other). Eventually, the system will move somewhat northeasterly 
and bring a surge of moisture with it. That precipitation should 
remain well south of Nebraska and Iowa with snow expected in 
Kansas and Missouri. Lift and moisture are lacking in the area so 
precipitation isn't expected.

Depending on your location in eastern Nebraska or western Iowa, 
Wednesday may be your coolest day of the week or Thursday. 
Locations to the northwest of the cold front will have their 
coldest day Wednesday. This is likely to be areas north and west 
of a line from Columbus to West Point to Monona. Though the 
differences won't be huge, probably within 5 degrees or so on each
day. Temperatures at the 850mb level will increase from about -3C
to 0C which should lead to slight warmup on Thursday. Linger cloud
may limit temperatures on Thursday in southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa.

Friday through Monday:
The pattern is still somewhat convoluted through the weekend and 
into Monday. In general, a dry and warm pattern will dominate the 
mid-range as a ridge of high pressure will build over the West 
Coast. Northwest flow and increased heights over the area may 
result in temperatures in the 50s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Dec 1 2020

VFR conditions through the period at all TAF sites. Light winds
less than 5 knots at TAF issuance, but increase to 07-11 knots
16-00z. There could be a period of MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings
that develop at KOFK by 03/06z, just beyond the end of this TAF
period. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...DeWald