655 
FXUS62 KMHX 010033
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
733 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes offshore this evening. Cool high pressure will 
then build over the area Tuesday through Thursday. Another strong 
low pressure system will likely impact the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM Mon...The latest analysis is showing the cold front
pushing through eastern NC this evening and will be offshore in
within the next hour or so. Much cooler airmass will filter into
the area allowing to temperatures to drop night into the upper 30s
and low 40s inland with upper 40s along the coast. Also, late 
night, the northern tier can see a few isolated showers 
overnight into early Tuesday morning as upper level energy moves
overhead, but otherwise mostly dry. 

Winds subsided across the area, though a tight pressure 
gradient will keep it modestly breezy overnight, but enough to
drop the Wind Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM Mon...Large cut-off low centered over the NY/Ontario 
border will drag cold air south across much of the Mid Atlantic and 
Southeast. While a modest SW wind will persist tomorrow, 850mb temp 
anomolies of -10 to -15 Celsius across much of the Southeast 
will only result in strong cold air advection. Despite sunny 
skies, aftn high temps Tue will only reach the upper 40s to 
around 50 inland with mid 50s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Cold high pressure will build into the area 
through midweek. Another strong low pressure system will likely 
impact the area this weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure will slowly build 
across the southern US, featuring mostly dry wx and temps several 
deg below normal. A much colder airmass will filter into the area 
and linger through mid week. 850mb temp anomolies 10-15 degrees C 
below normal. Highs Wed will be in the upper 40s to low- 50s, 
warming into the mid- upper 50s Thu. Overnight lows will drop to or 
below freezing for most inland locations Wed and Thu mornings. 

Friday through Monday...Models still show a low pressure system
impacting the area this weekend, but quite a bit different with
respect to timing and specifics. High pressure will continue to
shift offshore Friday. Sfc low is progged to strengthen and 
lift through the SE while strong upper low over the central 
plains and approaches the Carolinas. Forecast specifics still 
tbd, but periods of heavy rain, strong winds and coastal impacts
all possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/... 
As of 715 PM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions, except for a brief 
period of MVFR after 6z over the inland TAF sites (KPGV/KISO) as
an upper level trough moves through ENC bringing an increase of
clouds. As this upper level trough pushes through, it can bring
a few light showers over KPGV, otherwise mostly dry. Winds have
slightly diminish this evening, but expect gusty winds up to 20
overnight. Skies will clear tomorrow with WSW winds 15 to 25 kt
through most of the day, winds will finally become below 10 
knots towards the end of the TAF period.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
As of 3 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure in control. W wind gusts 20-25 kt expected
Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight Through Tuesday/...
As of 730 PM Mon...Hazardous marine conditions continue through
Tuesday. Gale Warnings continue for many marine locations this 
evening, but winds will begin to subside tonight behind the cold
front. Gales for Albemarle, Croatan, Roanoke, and Pamlico 
Sounds and the northern waters have been downgraded to Small 
Craft. Winds over the inland rivers dropped below SCA criteria
and was able to cancel with the evening update. 

Winds SW 20-25 kts with gusts up to 35 knots tonight through 
Tuesday. Some hi- res guidance show a slight surge in wind gusts
tonight across the southern and central coastal waters, so an 
extension for Gales may be required through early Tuesday 
morning. Waves 10-15 ft will subside, but remain dangerous, to 
6-9 ft overnight and into Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
As of 3 AM Mon...W winds 15-20 kt Wed morning diminishing to 
10-20 kt, with seas 3-5 ft. Much better conditions expected 
across the waters Thursday with NW-W winds 5-10 kt and seas 1-3 
ft. High pressure will shift offshore Thu night and Fri with 
winds becoming S 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 410 PM Mon...Strong SW winds will continue tonight, which will 
likely result in minor coastal flooding and rough surf for portions 
of the NC coast into Tuesday aftn. Coastal Flood Advisory continues 
for soundside areas along the Outer Banks for potential inundation 1-
2 ft agl Monday. Added areas S of Buxton to Ocracoke Island given 
reports of overwash on Hwy 12 this afternoon. Low water levels will 
be possible across the Neuse and Bay Rivers into Tue. High Surf 
Advisory also continues for rough surf and potential for minor beach 
erosion from North Topsail to Beaufort Inlet until 11pm and from 
Beaufort Inlet to Oregon Inlet until 4am.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131-135-
     230-231.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...BM/ML
SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...DAG/CQD/BM/ML
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX