National Weather Service Raw Text Product

017 
FXUS62 KJAX 301038
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
538 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

Strong front with showers and embedded storms along and ahead of it 
will move east of the region early this period. Elevated winds above
the surface will result in low level wind shear potential ahead of 
the front. Once the front passes, a trend toward VFR is expected 
with winds mixing down and becoming gusty. Winds will diminish this
evening, with VFR expected through the night. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [203 AM EST]...

.Near Term...[through Tonight]...

Strong cold front will move east southeast across the region this 
morning. Expect it to be east of the area by noon. Continued 
potential for strong wind gusts in storms ahead of and along the 
boundary, and can not rule out potential for an isolated tornado 
due to shear and frontal convergence. Clearing will follow the 
front, but wrap around moisture is expected to pivot across SE GA.
The combination of the cloud cover and cold advection will cause 
temperatures to fall through the afternoon across SE GA, whereas 
the sunshine should help keep temperatures fairly steady through 
much of the day time hours over NE FL. In general, highs Today 
will be recorded this morning. It will also be fairly breezy 
Today. 

For Tonight, skies will clear from the northwest, with high pressure
building from the west. The gradient will remain fairly tight 
through the night, so winds will continue to stir overnight. The 
winds will minimize frost formation despite lows in the 30s. 
Low temperatures near or at freezing possible well inland, but 
not expecting to be at or below 32 long enough to warrant a freeze
warning at this point.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday through Wednesday Night]...

...WIDESPREAD INLAND LIGHT FREEZE EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...

Tuesday...Sunny skies and cold conditions as Meteorological Winter
begins on 12/1 and gusty Northwest winds continue at 15-20 mph 
with gusts of 25-30 mph and strong cold air advection will hold 
Max Temps around 50 degrees across SE GA and lower/middle 50s for 
NE FL.

Tuesday Night...As cold high pressure settles over the region 
expect NW winds to decrease to less than 5 mph and along with 
mostly clear skies will set up good radiational cooling 
conditions and a widespread light freeze is expected over all 
inland areas, with lows in the upper 20s across SE GA and near 
30 degrees across inland NE FL and Freeze headlines will likely
be required. Some light frost will be possible as well by early 
Wednesday morning as winds become near calm in wind sheltered 
areas.

Wednesday...High pressure continues to push Northeast of the 
region and surface winds become light Northeast and under 
Mostly Sunny skies Max Temps will modify slightly into the 
middle 50s SE GA and upper 50s/near 60 degrees across NE FL. 
Upper level cloud cover increases Wed Night but another night 
of widespread low temps in the 30s possible over inland areas 
and 40s along the Atlc Coast and another brief light freeze 
not out of the question for inland SE GA areas near the 
Altamaha River Basin.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Thursday...Mainly dry conditions with increasing high clouds 
ahead of next frontal system and expect milder temps with the 
onshore flow off the Atlantic as Sfc High pressure builds into 
the Carolinas. Max Temps into the 60s across SE GA and near 70 
across NE FL.

Friday...Long-range models have backed off the intensity of 
next shortwave trof energy/moisture available and now rainfall 
chances are mainly in the 20-40% range with the next frontal 
passage. Max Temps will likely reach into the 70-75 degree 
range and lows falling into the 40s/50s Fri Night.

Sat/Sun...Models struggling to handle the expected mid level 
cut-off low feature to push across the SE US over the weekend,
but for now it appears as though it will not phase with moisture 
over the Gulf of Mexico and cross the NE FL/SE GA region with 
mainly dry conditions and seasonably cool temps with Highs in the 
60s and lows in the 40s, but confidence remains low in the model 
solutions from the Friday through Sunday time frame.


.Marine...

A strong cold front will move east across area this morning. High 
pressure will build from the west this afternoon through Tonight. 
The high will build overhead Tuesday through Tuesday night. The high
will then build toward the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. A 
wave of low pressure will move northeast out of the gulf, and across
area Thursday night through Friday. The region will be between low 
pressure to the northeast and high pressure building from the west 
over the weekend. 

Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Tuesday 
              NE FL: Moderate through Tuesday


.FIRE WEATHER...

On Tuesday, much colder and drier airmass will combine with gusty
Northwest winds and humidity values falling into the 30 to 35 
percent range to provide for more hazardous fire weather 
conditions but for now expect values to stay just above critical 
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  61  33  49  27  56 /  10  10   0   0   0 
SSI  69  37  50  34  56 /  90  10   0   0   0 
JAX  68  35  53  30  58 /  90   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  71  38  54  36  59 /  90   0   0   0   0 
GNV  69  34  53  29  57 /  70   0   0   0   0 
OCF  70  36  54  30  59 /  90   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&