916 
FXUS62 KJAX 271056
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
556 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

Low stratus and fog will from the Suwannee Valley and inland 
portions of southeast GA after will affect most of the TAF sites
except for KSGJ to begin the 12Z TAF period. MVFR visibility will
linger at KCRG with low end MVFR ceilings at KSSI through 13Z. 
And LIFR ceilings of around 400 feet may sneak into KGNV and VQQ 
towards by 13Z with MVFR fog possible, but high clouds have 
prevented persistent fog over much of NE FL areas south of I-10 so
far this morning. VFR conditions should then prevail at the 
regional terminals by 15Z-16Z. Southwesterly surface winds of 5-10
knots will prevail around 15Z at all TAF sites with VFR 
conditions returning to the regional terminals. The Atlantic sea 
breeze boundary will then develop at the Atlantic coast, crossing 
the coastal terminals by 18Z and then the Duval County terminals 
by 21Z. Surface winds will shift to east- southeasterly around 10 
knots following the passage of this boundary. Some showers may 
affect KSSI at the end of the TAF period with fog possible again 
at the JAX terminals and KGNV after 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [400 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Dense fog that has developed overnight just west of the region 
is slowly advecting into our area over the suwannee valley and 
inland SE GA. This is due to low level moisture in place ahead of 
a weak cold front just NW of the region with dewpoints in the low 
to mid 60s over NE FL and SE GA. A low level ridge axis lies over 
NE and north central FL promoting weak flow in the boundary layer 
and also preventing the front from progressing farther SE into our
area. Light southwest to westerly flow just above the boundary 
layer is helping bring further moisture from the Gulf of Mexico 
and helping to advect the fog from west to east along and north of
I-10.The fog will advance near the the I-95 by sunrise and then 
begin to lift into low stratus until the late morning when further
sunshine and the mixing of the boundary layer will mix out the 
remaining fog and low stratus. 

Zonal flow aloft will carry a weak impulse of short wave energy 
over the area today, but low instability levels will keep chances 
for any thunderstorms mainly inland over far interior SE GA and
near the suwannee valley of NE FL where an isolated storm may be 
possible this afternoon. Otherwise southwest winds 5-10 mph with 
partly cloudy skies over NE FL with partly to mostly skies over 
SE GA where widely scattered showers are possible west of highway
301. An atlantic seabreeze will push inland from the coast early 
this afternoon towards the I-95 corridor with winds behind it 
becoming easterly around 5-10 mph with an isolated shower possible
near the coast north of Jacksonville as the seabreeze moves 
inland. Highs will be in the upper 70s over SE GA, along the GA 
coast, and into NE FL along I-10 with low 80s south of I-10 and 
near 80 degrees at the NE FL coast. 

Tonight, the clouds will be on the increase after midnight as a 
stronger shortwave impulse moves towards the region from the west.
This feature will help to push the cold front southeast into our 
area with scattered to numerous showers developing near the frontal
boundary and pushing eastward along and north of I-10 from the 
west and approaching the coast by dawn. Some areas of fog will be 
possible south of I-10 closer to the low level ridge as it is 
nudged southward into central FL in response to the approaching 
cold front. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

A weak cold front will drift south into north Florida on Saturday
as an upper trough drops se into the mid-Atlantic states. The
front will then lift back north as a warm front on Sunday while a
surface low deepens and moves ne across La/Ms ahead of a strong
mid-upper level low. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the area this weekend...becoming
widespread Sunday night as a strong cold front approaches the
area. Isolated strong storms are possible if enough instability
can develop mainly Sunday night as a negatively tilted upper
trough lifts ne across AL-Ga. Above normal temperatures will
continue.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

A strong cold front will push east across the area early Monday
morning which will bring an end to the rain along with much colder
temperatures. Brisk conditions are expected Monday through Tuesday
as strong cold air advection drops temperatures into the 30s
Monday night with wind chills in the mid/upper 20s to lower 30s by
early Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday will only
reach the 50s with strong northwest winds making it feel even
colder. Tuesday night will be the coldest night as the pressure
gradient relaxes and surface high pressure moves over the area.
Winds will drop off allowing for strong radiational cooling with
freezing temperatures expected over inland se Georgia and parts of
inland northeast Florida along and north of the I-10 corridor.
Lows will bottom out in the upper 20s and lower 30s in these areas
with mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually
moderate Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure shifts off the
east coast allowing our winds to veer to the southeast. There will
be a slight chance of showers on Thursday as an upper trough
approaches from the west.


.MARINE...

A cold front will move slowly southeast today and push south of 
our coastal waters early Saturday. High pressure will briefly 
build north of the waters on Saturday night with a period of 
easterly onshore winds and then progress eastward, moving off the 
Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon as low pressure rapidly 
strengthens over the lower Mississippi Valley and moves northeast.
Showers and thunderstorms will then increase Sunday afternoon as 
the frontal boundary returns northward. Low pressure will continue
to deepen as it moves north of the region Sunday night and Monday
morning, driving a strong cold front across our waters by midday 
on Monday with a few strong thunderstorms possible ahead of this 
front and Small Craft Advisory Conditions developing offshore. 
Strong low pressure will then remain nearly stationary over the 
Great Lakes region through midweek, with breezy offshore flow 
continuing over our waters and elevated seas prevailing offshore.

Rip Currents: Low risk for NE FL and SE GA beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  76  60  71  56  69 /  20  50  50  10  60 
SSI  76  63  71  61  72 /  10  40  50  10  40 
JAX  80  63  74  61  74 /  20  30  50  10  30 
SGJ  80  64  76  64  76 /  10  10  40  10  20 
GNV  82  62  75  60  76 /  10  10  40   0  20 
OCF  82  62  78  63  78 /   0  10  30   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&