107 
FXUS64 KFWD 251725
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1125 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thanksgiving Day/

A benign weather pattern is expected over the next 24 hours,
resulting in mild temperatures and dry weather. Morning surface
analysis shows that the cold front responsible for yesterday's
severe thunderstorms is now well to our east with the cooler and
drier continental polar air mass well-established across the
region. Skies have almost completely cleared out, with only a few
cirrus clouds noted over our southeastern counties.

Tonight will feature clear, calm, and dry conditions which will
allow for excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures should have
little difficulty falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s. A few
low and sheltered locations may even see temperatures drop into
the mid 30s. While freezing temperatures are not forecast, any
sensitive vegetation should probably be protected out of abundance
of caution, as some frost could form in any spots that get
particularly cool tonight.

Thanksgiving Day will be sunny with highs climbing into the 70s
across the region. This will make it an excellent day to hold any
Thanksgiving events outdoors in the fresh air and sunshine. A few
cirrus clouds could start to spread into Central Texas late in 
the afternoon, but the vast majority of the day for the entire 
forecast area should see sunny skies.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020/
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Moisture will be on the increase by Thursday night across the
region as we begin to feel the influence of a deepening upper
trough over the Southwest U.S. A strong shortwave moving through
the Northern Plains will send a cold front southward into North
Texas Thursday night. This front should should initially arrive
precipitation free, but as it pushes farther into Central Texas it
will encounter a moisture rich environment across Southeast Texas.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Southeast Texas and some of this activity will likely spread into
our southern counties by early Friday morning. Surface based
instability will likely be waning by mid morning Friday across the
southeast, but increasing large scale forcing for ascent from the
approaching trough will overspread the region through the day.
This will help to amplify low level warm advection and keep the
potential for a few rumbles of thunder into the afternoon hours.
High temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than on
Thanksgiving day.

Model guidance has come into better agreement with the handling 
of the upper trough through the weekend, with a slower but still 
progressive track through the Southern Plains. This bodes well for
increasing rain chances and much needed additional rainfall 
across the region. Low level isentropic ascent will continue to
increase through Friday night with forcing becoming maximized
across North Texas Saturday and Saturday night. We'll advertise
steadily increasing PoPs Friday night through Saturday night.
Rainfall amounts should be highest across our southeast counties
and lowest to the west and northwest through Saturday night. The
widespread rain and cloud cover will keep high temperatures 5-10
degrees below normal through the weekend.

This system should continue eastward into early next week with a
cold front moving through Sunday night and early Monday morning.
High temperatures will likely only top out in the low 50s on
Monday with freezing temperatures expected over a good portion of
the region Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions prevail today with virtually no cloud cover to
speak of across the forecast area. Only a FEW high cirrus clouds
are noted over parts of Central TX. Winds are from the N at around
10 KT, and will become VRB at less than 5 KT after 00Z. Winds will
become better established out of the SE after 06Z in North TX, and
after 09Z in Central TX. Winds will increase to 10-15 KT across 
the region Thursday afternoon with VFR continuing through the TAF 
period.

Godwin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  42  72  50  61 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Waco                66  42  74  55  63 /   0   0   0  20  40 
Paris               59  38  68  49  61 /   0   0   0  10   5 
Denton              64  36  72  44  61 /   0   0   0   5  10 
McKinney            62  37  71  48  61 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Dallas              64  44  73  53  63 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Terrell             63  38  71  51  63 /   0   0   0  20  20 
Corsicana           66  45  74  57  66 /   0   0   0  30  30 
Temple              67  41  74  54  63 /   0   0   0  30  50 
Mineral Wells       65  40  74  44  61 /   0   0   0   5  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$