632 
FXUS63 KEAX 182056
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
256 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 256 PM CST WED NOV 18 2020

Strong ridging across the Central US and southerly mid-level flow
from the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in another stretch of warm 
days across our region. Strong southwest wind between 20-25mph 
gusting to above 40mph contrast the clear sunny skies. A low level
jet streak is pushing across E KS into W MO. Solar heating during
the day mixes 850mb winds down to the surface bringing gusty winds 
up to 40-45mph. Higher wind gusts are concentrated to E KS and far
W MO; however, breezy conditions are anticipated for the rest of 
the area. Dry air over the Central Plains couples with these high 
winds resulting in elevated fire danger for much of the region. 
Burning is not recommended especially for areas around and west 
of I-49.

Sunshine and windy conditions stick around through the day on 
Thursday. Winds are not expected to be as high as today; however,
breezy conditions and elevated fire danger persist. The upper 
level ridge weakens through the day on Thursday signifying a 
pattern shift going into Friday and the weekend.

A large upper level wave makes its way across the southern 
Rockies overnight Thursday into Friday generating a leeward 
surface trough. This surface cyclone begins piecing itself 
together into the weekend. Aided by strong high pressure systems 
to the north and south, warm frontogenesis occurs in northern MO 
toward the MO/IA border. Influx of moisture combined with 
isentropic ascent along this boundary provides a good recipe for 
long lasting stratiform precipitation. This precipitation will 
stick around for much of the day on Saturday enveloping most of 
the region. There are still some uncertainties as to where the 
boundary will set up , but much of the area is expected to receive
precipitation. Rain is expected to leave late Sunday morning 
ushered out by a cold front. While this brings forth a dry 
beginning to next week, temperatures are expected to dip back 
toward fall averages continuing the see-saw of temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST WED NOV 18 2020

Significant low level wind shear is expected overnight Wednesday 
into Thursday. VFR conditions persist for the forecast period.

A low level jet streak is causing strong gusty southwesterly winds. 
Gusty winds at ground level are remain through early evening. LLWS 
is expected as the nocturnal inversion forms after sunset and lasts 
through the overnight Wed. into Thurs. Winds at the surface are 
expected to exceed 10-15kts with 2000ft winds exceeding 40kts during 
the overnight hours. LLWS and gusty winds are expected to continue 
through the day Thursday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ057-060-105.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-053.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MOZ037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel