423 
FXUS64 KBRO 152339 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
539 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The cold front has pushed south of the Rio Grande
Valley early this evening. Light to moderate northerly winds are
expected through the period as high pressure builds into the
region. MVFR ceilings may persist at BRO and HRL through late 
evening due to some lingering low cloud decks. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): The cold front has just 
worked through Deep South Texas, with the initial blast of gusty 
winds on the Brownsville doorstep. Very dry air has arrived across 
the northwestern ranchlands, with temperatures generally holding in 
the upper 70s, allowing humidity values to dip to near 20 percent. 
Rainfall has been spotty ahead of the front and right along it, with 
a sharp cutoff behind the front. Have dropped POPs a bit behind the 
front, leaving only isolated wording for the lower RGV into tonight. 
With drier air in place, we should get a break from fog tonight, and 
temperatures will likely dip into the 50s for most. HBV and cooler 
points across Zapata or Kenedy counties may bottom out into the 
upper 40s, BRO may only drop to about 60. Highs tomorrow attempt a 
rebound into the upper 70s, with mid 50s to low 60s Monday night. 

Have stuck with the Coastal Flood Advisory, as water levels are 
running 0.8 of a foot above predicted, which is expected to reach 
over 0.5 of a foot at high tide today around 5 pm, potentially 
bringing water levels near 1.3 feet MHHW. A similar setup is 
expected tomorrow afternoon. 

An Fire Danger Statement was issued this morning for western 
counties through this afternoon. Low humidity values are expected 
again tomorrow afternoon, with much lighter winds.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500mb high pressure will
remain centered over Central Mexico with ridging extending
northward into South Texas through the rest of the work week. At
the surface, high pressure will move into the Mid-Atlantic while
low pressure from Hurricane Iota moves into Central America
through the middle of the week. With model time-heights showing
very dry air amid strong subsidence, rain chances will remain 
very low with beautiful weather conditions. Daytime highs will 
range from the low 80s at the start of the period to the mid 80s 
by the end of the week, which is just above normal for this time 
of year. Dew points will start off in the upper 50s on Tuesday and
rise to the upper 60s with winds gradually shifting to the east 
and then southeast.

With Hurricane Iota moving into the Caribbean and strong high
pressure building across the Southeast U.S., an easterly fetch
will set up across the Gulf through the second half of the week.
Combining with increasing astronomical high tides, minor coastal
flooding will be possible as swells increase toward the lower
Texas coast. Peak wave run-up will occur around each high tide
cycle, which will be in the evening hours this week.

MARINE (Now through Monday night): The cold front will continue to 
work across the coastal Gulf of Mexico waters this afternoon, with 
gusty northerly winds gusting near 30 kts at times. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon offshore. 
Seas may briefly build this evening before winds diminish into 
tonight and tomorrow. Small Craft Advisories are in effect across 
all coastal waters until 6 pm, and Gulf waters through 10 pm. If the 
winds behave, marine hazards may be able to be dropped overnight and 
through Monday.

Tuesday through Sunday: Moderate winds and seas will continue
through the week with seas gradually building each day as a
persistent easterly fetch strengthens across the Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the Gulf waters with 
seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet Wednesday through Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Very dry air has arrived into the northwestern 
ranchlands of Zapata and Jim Hogg counties, especially. With gusty 
northerly winds, there remains an elevated threat for erratic 
wildfire behavior this afternoon into early this evening. Humidity 
values below 20 percent are expected again tomorrow, with 20 foot 
winds below 10 mph. Burning of any kind should probably be put off 
another day, but at this time criteria for another Fire Danger 
Statement will not be met tomorrow. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  62  75  64  78 /  10   0   0  10 
BROWNSVILLE          61  77  64  80 /  20  10  10  10 
HARLINGEN            59  77  61  80 /  10   0   0  10 
MCALLEN              57  78  59  81 /  10   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      54  78  57  80 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  75  71  75 /  10  10   0  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ256-
     257-351.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63-KC