879 
FXUS64 KEWX 151600 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1000 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

.UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to remove the mention of showers across
the Highway 77 corridor. Current surface observations show the cold
front has moved southward well into the coastal plains, with much
drier air and gusty north winds moving in behind the front. The main
concern as we head into the late morning and early afternoon will be
for near critical fire weather conditions. Highs today are still on
track to peak in the mid 60s to mid 70s. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ 

AVIATION...
A cold front is moving through the area clearing skies and bringing
strong, gusty northerly winds. All terminals are VFR and will remain
that way through the period. Winds have increased in Austin and San
Antonio to 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 35 kts. These winds will
continue until around noon and then be 10 to 15 kts until early
evening. The strong winds will not reach DRT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ 

UPDATE...
A line of showers has developed along the cold front and is moving
through Lee and Bastrop Counties. We could see this line extend a bit
farther to the west, and we are updating to add slight chance POPs 
to this area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A cold front stretches from the DFW area to the Big Bend region and 
is moving toward the southeast. Ahead of the front the airmass is 
warm and moist. Temperatures across our CWA range from the upper 50s 
to the lower 70s and dewpoints are about the same. The airmass 
behind the front is much drier with dewpoints in the teens and 20s. 
Winds behind the front are from the north to northwest at 15 to 25 
mph with gusts in the 30s. By the start of this period the front 
should be through most of our CWA. This will mean a windy start to 
the forecast. While the boundary layer is moist, the deeper 
atmosphere ahead of the front is drier with PW at DRT last evening 
less than an inch. So, the front is not producing much 
precipitation. There is some chance that there will be a few showers 
over our southeastern counties where moisture is the deepest. 
However, even if there are showers, they won't produce more than a 
few hundredths of an inch. Winds will be strongest early in the day 
and decrease through the afternoon as the front moves farther away. 
The drier air will move in by late morning or early afternoon. The 
combination of dry air and strong winds will produce near critical 
fire weather conditions especially over the northeastern quarter of 
the CWA.

Temperatures will be down significantly. Highs today will be 10 to 
15 degrees lower than Saturday. Low temperatures Monday will follow 
the same pattern with 30s in the Hill Country and 40s elsewhere. A 
few spots could reach freezing, but they will be isolated.

The surface high behind the front will move over Arkansas tonight 
and Monday turning the winds to easterly. This will keep us dry and 
mild. Temperatures will moderate a bit Monday and highs will be near 
normal.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Lower to mid level ridging Monday night through Wednesday makes for 
mostly clear skies and light winds allowing for nearly efficient 
radiational cooling for chilly, below normal low temperatures at 
night with near normal high temperatures during the day. The ridging 
drifts off to the east Thursday through Saturday allowing moisture to
gradually increase leading to a warming trend with above normal 
temperatures. Deepening moisture could generate patchy morning 
drizzle Saturday, however chances are too low to mention at this
time. 

Better chances of showers may develop next Sunday into the following
week as a cold front moves across our area along with a couple of
upper level shortwave troughs interacting with deeper moisture. 
Although models are similar in showing this potentially wet pattern,
with La Nina currently in place, confidence is lower on a widespread
beneficial rainfall event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  43  73  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  38  74  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  43  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            67  38  72  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  45  76  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  38  72  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             76  41  76  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  40  74  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  40  74  41  76 /  -    0   0   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  45  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           73  44  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...YB
Decision Support...EWilliams