998 
FXUS64 KBRO 151132 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
532 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&& 

.AVIATION...A cold front is moving closer this morning, and is 
just upstream of the CWA now. Starting to see some pre-dawn fog 
forming along with lower ceilings. Conditions could drop to IFR 
and even LIFR for a few hours this morning and could be 
problematic for aviation interests. The front will make its way to
the Lower Valley and offshore by mid-day. Winds will shift to 
moderate to breezy north to northeast behind the front. Scattered
showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible from late morning
to late afternoon. Conditions will be mainly VFR once fog and low
ceilings clear out with the frontal passage, but nearby showers 
could briefly drop ceiling and visibility conditions to MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The main action in the short term 
will be an approaching cold front that will move through the area 
and offshore today. The front is upstream over south central Texas 
and should be entering the northern ranchlands and brush country 
around daybreak. That leaves room yet for some fog formation over 
the next few hours. The front should reach Brownsville around noon 
with north winds becoming moderate to breezy. Showers will develop 
near the coast, with rumbles of thunder possible through the 
afternoon. The front should be mostly through the area and offshore 
by sunset. The front will impact high temperatures today by keeping 
them down in the lower to mid 80s across the area. A coastal flood 
advisory has been posted for water run-up on the beaches this 
afternoon. Lower relative humidity values will develop over the 
upper RGV this afternoon behind the front. Conditions will be 
marginal, but sufficient for a fire danger statement. 

Weather tonight will be cooler, with low temperatures ranging from 
around 50 across the north to the mid 60s for the lower RGV under 
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The cooler trend will continue 
on Monday with high temps in the mid 70s to the lower 80s under 
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Minor coastal flooding may 
again be a concern.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): A very mild, and rather 
pleasantly warm November will continue through the long term period. 
As mid level ridging centers over South Texas and northern Mexico, 
the rest of the workweek will remain dry, with only a slight chance 
of showers returning early next weekend as tropical moisture is 
advected into the region. Above average temperatures can be expected 
each day, with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows in the 50s 
and lower 60s through mid week. There will be a slight warming 
trend, bringing highs into the lower to mid 80s and lows will only 
drop into the lower 60s for the latter half of the week.

Astronomical tides will continue to be on the rise this week, and 
with a persistent, moderate east-northeasterly fetch across the 
northern Gulf through mid week, minor coastal flooding may be an 
issue through the week.

MARINE: Now through Monday...Small craft advisory conditions are
set to commence at 10 AM as a cold front sweeps offshore. It 
should be mainly a wind event as northeast winds will increase to 
between 20 and 25 knots with a few gusts to 30 knots. Seas will 
increase too, but will be marginally at criteria for a few hours 
this evening and early tonight. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms may develop as the front moves through with the best
chances between about noon and 6 PM. Conditions will improve on 
Monday with moderate northeast winds and low to moderate seas.

Monday Night through Saturday...Behind Sunday's cold front, 
moderate east-northeasterly winds will keep seas generally 3 to 5 
feet through Tuesday...before seas continue to build into next 
weekend due to the persistent moderate east-northeasterly winds 
across the northern Gulf. Small craft should exercise caution early 
next week on the Gulf waters, and Small Craft Advisories will likely 
be needed by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  78  64  77 /  10  10   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          65  80  64  79 /  10  10  10  10 
HARLINGEN            61  80  61  79 /  10  10   0   0 
MCALLEN              59  81  59  81 /  10  10   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  81  56  81 /  10   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  75  71  76 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CST this 
     evening for TXZ256-257-351.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this 
     evening for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this 
     evening for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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