648 
FXUS64 KFWD 120707
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tonight/

Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected today, followed 
by low rain chances tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely, with 
much of the precipitation expected to be in the form of light 
rain showers. 

An active weather pattern remains well north of North and Central
Texas today, allowing for the displacement of cool air behind a 
southward surging cold front expected to arrive this evening. 
Before the front's arrival, a developing cyclone across the 
Central Plains will lead to a strengthening low-level jet this 
morning and through the afternoon. Cloud cover is expected to 
gradually increase, with the most coverage remaining west of I-35.
Highs today will climb into the 70s across North Texas, with 
lower 80s expected across Central Texas. 

The front's arrival will likely increase the potential for a few
rain showers along and north of I-20 this evening into early
Friday morning. Rain showers would likely be rooted near the 
850mb front, where moisture and ascent is expected to be 
maximized. Precipitation chances will decrease as we approach 
sunrise tomorrow morning, but a few sprinkles here or there will 
still be possible. Tonight's temperatures will range from the 
upper 40s in the northwest, to lower 60s across Central Texas. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 142 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/
/Thursday night through Wednesday/

A weak cold front will slide slowly south through North Texas
Thursday night. Steady overrunning will result in post frontal 
clouds and a few sprinkles through Friday morning. The chances 
for measurable rainfall will hold off until Friday night when 
large scale lift associated with an approaching shortwave 
increases. A few showers and storms will be possible across the 
northwest zones Friday night, then chances will increase from west
to east Saturday with the passing shortwave and associated surface
trough. Any storms that develop will be non-severe due to limited
instability and will end quickly from west to east with the 
passing shortwave. Once the upper trough axis moves east of the 
region, a cold front will slide southward across the Southern 
Plains Saturday night/Sunday. Although moisture will be quite 
scoured out for most of the CWA, there may be just enough along 
the front across the southeast zones to squeeze out a few showers 
Sunday afternoon. Any showers that do manage to develop will exit 
the region by Sunday evening once much drier and cooler air 
filters in from the north. 

Temperatures Thursday night will be mild (generally in the 50s) 
due to increasing low level warm/moist advection and abundant 
cloud cover. Highs Friday should be a bit cooler than Thursday due
to lingering cloud cover with highs ranging from the lower 60s 
near the Red River to the upper 70s across parts of Central Texas.
Decreasing clouds and a breezy southwest wind on Saturday will 
result in well above normal temperatures with highs from the mid 
70s in the east to the lower 80s across the central and west. The 
passage of the cold front Sunday will knock temperatures back 
closer to seasonal normals with highs from the mid 60s to the mid 
70s. 

The upper pattern will become more amplified the first half of 
the work week with a building ridge across the Central and 
Southern Plains. This pattern will result in rain-free and mild 
weather. However, Monday will still be a bit cool (highs in the 
60s) due to lingering low level cold air advection. High temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday will be at or above seasonal normals, 
ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. 

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns...Wind shifting from southerly to northerly behind a
front early Friday morning. 

Although North and Central Texas TAF sites remain SKC, this is
expected to change through the night as the low-level jet advects
moisture into portions of North and Central Texas. The increasing
moisture will likely lead to the development of mid-level clouds
expected to approach both DFW area TAF sites and Waco later this
morning. All cloud cover is expected to remain in the VFR
category, therefore, no impacts are anticipated. The ongoing
southeasterly winds are expected to become southerly later this
morning, before gradually shifting ahead of the incoming cold
front tonight. 

The cold front will likely be arriving at DFW's TAF sites around 
03Z Friday morning. The front's arrival will switch around the 
winds out of the northeast, and increase to around 10-15 knots. 
There will be a few rain showers to contend with in the wake of 
the front, but coverage and location remain a bit uncertain at 
this time, therefore, they're not explicitly mentioned in the TAF.
This precipitation potential will continue to be evaluated 
through the day.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  77  54  70  59 /   0   0  20  20  30 
Waco                52  80  59  76  61 /   0   0  10  10  10 
Paris               46  71  50  64  54 /   0   0  20  10  20 
Denton              47  75  51  67  54 /   0   0  20  20  30 
McKinney            46  74  52  68  57 /   0   0  20  20  30 
Dallas              53  76  55  71  61 /   0   0  20  20  20 
Terrell             49  76  55  71  57 /   0   0  10  10  20 
Corsicana           51  79  58  76  61 /   0   0  10  10  10 
Temple              52  81  60  77  61 /   0   0   5  10   5 
Mineral Wells       50  78  51  68  56 /   0   0  10  20  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$