669 
FXUS61 KCLE 102102
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
402 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the region Wednesday morning.
High pressure will build into the region late Wednesday and 
will remain in control across the area through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A potent shortwave trough over the central CONUS and resultant
surface low will lift northeast across the upper Great Lakes
tonight. Abnormally warm temperatures is expected to continue 
this evening through tonight as warm air advection with strong 
southerly winds continues to keep warm temperatures ahead of an 
advancing cold front. A low-level jet of 40-50 knots at 925mb
will move into the region tonight, resulting in very gusty
winds, especially with convection that develops ahead of the
cold front. The mean max wind gusts from the HREF show the
potential for 40-45 mph gusts across western Ohio and near
lakeshore areas mainly between 02-10Z. Showers with and ahead of
the cold front will begin developing across our area around 03Z
across western Ohio, progressing eastward across our area
through the overnight period and morning hours. Enough
instability will be present (MUCAPE > 250 J/kg) between 03-06Z
to include a slight chance for thunderstorms over western Ohio,
but instability (and with it, lightning chances) wanes through
the night, reducing the chances for thunderstorms as the night
goes on. Storm total QPF of up to 0.5" is expected, though with
any convection, local amounts could be higher. No flooding is
expected. The cold front and subsequent rain chances should 
exit the area by the afternoon hours Wednesday. Strong cold air 
advection will result in an immediate drop of 5-10 degrees with 
the cold front, followed by a gradual decrease in temperature 
through the day tomorrow, with a slight bump upwards during the 
afternoon for areas that receive some sunshine. High pressure 
begins building in from the west Wednesday night, centered over 
Indiana/Ohio by Thursday morning. Clearing skies and light winds
should result in decent radiational cooling Wednesday night, 
allowing temperatures to drop in the 30s, which believe or not,
is close to normal for this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will expand northeast across the region on Thursday 
with strong subsidence. We could see scattered cu off Lake Erie on 
Thursday but should clear quickly. Temperatures will be seasonal for 
mid November with highs in the lower 50s. 

The upper level pattern will feature a series of shortwaves lifting 
out of the Plains followed by the trough finally traversing the 
Great Lakes Region Thursday night and Friday. At the surface, a 
trough will cross the Upper Great Lakes on Friday will little impact 
except some passing clouds and weak cold advection into Friday 
night. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although model spread begins to increase over the weekend, the 
general pattern will feature a shortwave trough lifting out of 
the Plains across the Great Lakes on Saturday. Surface low 
pressure will lift north across the Upper Midwest, lifting a 
warm front north of the area on Saturday night. Chances of 
precipitation gradually return Saturday night into Sunday with 
temperatures pushing back up above normal into the lower 60s on 
Sunday. Despite timing differences, the trend by early next week
will be for a stronger upper level trough to develop across the
eastern Great Lakes. Cold advection will begin with the passage
of a cold front Sunday night and continue through Monday with 
possible lake effect rain showers developing on Monday and 
transitioning to snow showers on Monday night. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will persist through 00Z before a cold front 
delivers increasing chances of showers and MVFR ceilings to the 
area from west to east tonight. Can't rule out an isolated
thunderstorm at the western terminals before 06Z Wednesday, but
opted to leave it out of this update due to the low 
probability. Most of the showers should exit the region by 12Z, 
but mist and MVFR to possibly near IFR ceilings will likely 
linger at eastern terminals towards the end of the TAF period. 
Breezy south to southwesterly winds up to 15 knots with gusts 
generally to 20 to 25 knots will persist through tonight and 
will shift to the northwest Wednesday morning. There's potential
for 40 to 50 knots of wind shear at 2,000 feet at eastern 
terminals tonight, but only have wind shear in the KYNG TAF 
since mixing should prevent shear across most of the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR with showers possible Saturday evening into
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 knots on Lake Erie tonight 
ahead of a cold front. Given the offshore flow and strongest winds 
focused towards the Canadian side of the lake, no Small Craft 
Advisories have been issued. As winds shift to the west on Wednesday 
with a passage of a cold front, waves will increase down the long 
fetch of the lake to 3 to 5 feet. The nearshore waters east of 
Cleveland will be choppy but not anticipating a Small Craft Advisory 
given the higher waves remaining in the open waters. 

High pressure will build east across Lake Erie on Thursday with 
southwest winds becoming northwest on Friday with the passage of a 
weak trough. A short window of higher waves will likely result in 
Small Craft Advisories Friday afternoon and evening from Willowick 
to Erie, PA. 

Light winds on Saturday will transition to southerly winds of 15-20 
knots Saturday night into Sunday. A strong cold front will cross 
Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday with westerly winds increasing to 
20-30 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are yet again likely across the area
for one more day today. Here are the (previous) record highs 
(and what year the record was set) at our six climate sites.

Tuesday, November 10
Akron-Canton - 70 (1998)
Cleveland	 - 71 (1998)
Erie		 - 68 (1949 and 1939)
Mansfield	 - 68 (1977 and 1949)
Toledo		 - 68 (1999 and 1949)
Youngstown   - 68 (1949 and 1931)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...KEC/Sefcovic
CLIMATE...