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238 FXUS64 KMAF 070945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2020 .DISCUSSION... Not many changes to previous forecast. WV imagery shows the upper trough now centered over the southern Texas/LA border, while to the west, the trough that was off the PacNW coast 24 hours ago has dug down to the Bay Area. This has dissolved yesterday's skinny ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in SW flow aloft over the area. At the sfc, return flow has resumed, and KMAF VWP shows a 40kt LLJ right off the deck. This, combined w/buffer soundings, suggests fog/stratus development over the next few hours, mainly along and east of the mighty Pecos. Fog should burn off by mid-morning, but low clouds may take until noon or so to dissipate. This, and a slight decrease in thicknesses, could mitigate afternoon highs a bit, especially over eastern zones. Sunday, sfc flow will begin veering to SW in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range as the Bay Area trough ejects up into eastern MT by 00Z Monday. This should add a few degrees to afternoon highs. Meanwhile, a secondary trough will follow the first, dig to southern NV by 06Z Monday, and then to near the Four Corners by 18Z. This will maintain a downslope component Monday afternoon, resulting in continued above-normal temperatures for the area, but a Pac front will be arriving also, and could limit highs over the NW zones. The NAM develops a pretty good mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes Monday, and the timing of the secondary trough will be ripe for high winds in the Guadalupes/Delawares. This is too far out for a watch, so we'll continue to highlight it in the HWO. Monday night, the Pac front will sharpen up a dryline over the eastern zones, for an isolated chance of precipitation there. Attm, it looks like -SHRA, but if LI's trend lower, thunder might need to be added. Unfortunately, this looks to be our only shot at precip this forecast. The Pac front will take temps down to around normal Tuesday, after which they'll rebound nicely by Wednesday afternoon. Thursday, a tertiary trough moves through the region, bringing a second Pac front and cooler temps Thursday, near-normal temps Friday, and then a rebound to above-normal Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 81 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 52 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 75 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 76 41 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 74 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 79 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 87/44