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871 FXUS63 KIND 051936 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 236 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 252 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High pressure will continue bring dry and warm conditions into early next week. A cold front will bring rain chances Monday night into Wednesday, with colder air arriving on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 948 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 High cloud shield was draped across the region this morning with filtered sunshine. 1430Z temperatures were warming regardless into the mid and upper 50s. The overall forecast is in excellent shape for the rest of the day with just minor modifications needed. An upper level trough will track through the Ohio Valley today...keeping a stream of high level clouds over the region with deep moisture noted above 500mb. The plume of deeper moisture aloft will shift east late this afternoon with the trough axis...resulting in clearing skies and likely increased sunshine from the west prior to sunset. Nudged up high temperatures a degree or so across the board with low level thermals supporting highs in the upper 60s to near 70 despite the cloud cover. Also bumped up wind gusts based on current obs. Zone and grid updates out. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 252 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 The weak upper trough will move through early tonight then exit. The high clouds will exit with it. For Friday into Saturday, an upper ridge will remain over the area with high pressure still in control at the surface. The atmosphere will remain dry, so skies should be mostly clear. Some moisture will begin to advect into the area from the south Saturday night as the upper ridge moves a little farther east. This will allow for some increase in clouds, mainly late. With little change in airmass, expect the above normal temperatures to continue. Sunshine on Friday and Saturday will boost temperatures to around 70 and into the 70s across the area. These would remain below record values, but will have to see if temperatures overperform like they did on Wednesday. Guidance was too cool through the short term for highs, so raised as appropriate. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 236 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Two main items of focus for the extended will be on the unseasonable and near record warmth the region is set to enjoy...and the potential for severe convection with a strong cold front late Tuesday that will bring Indian Summer to a screeching halt. A highly amplified upper level pattern will continue across the lower 48...highlighted by a digging trough along the Pacific coast and an anomalously strong ridge across the eastern part of the country. The development of a cutoff low along the Texas Gulf coast Friday and Saturday will further enhance the ridging across the Ohio Valley and set the stage for near record warmth through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Model soundings and RH progs show strong subsidence with just a slow increase in cirrus advecting into the region Sunday from the remnant cutoff upper low followed by progressively deeper moisture associated with Eta in the Gulf for early next week. Despite the increase in clouds...a deeply mixed and dry boundary layer will produce low level thermals above all available guidance. Have raised highs to the mid 70s in most locations for Sunday and Monday which as mentioned above...will place us at near record levels. Depending on how quickly the cold front approaching from the west arrives on Tuesday...potential is there to approach the record high again. To further hammer home the idea of near record warmth...there is support from the CIPS analogs including the Columbus Day weekend in 2007 which up until last year...produced our hottest temperatures ever recorded in the month of October. The upper level trough over the west will kick east early next week with a negative tilt developing as it tracks into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. This will enable a wave to deepen along a strengthening cold front as it tracks into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night...setting the stage for a high shear/low CAPE QLCS setup along and immediately ahead of the front. Frontal passage timing remains somewhat unsettled and unfavorable for a more widespread severe weather threat...but the available shear alone along with impressive dynamics aloft argue for considering the potential for more robust convection to accompany the front. This will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days. Behind the front...more seasonable conditions will return with high pressure for the middle of next week. Expect highs back into the 50s by Wednesday and Thursday. The upper level pattern however hints at an active regime continuing with storm systems impacting the Ohio Valley every few days. With a moist southwest flow aloft and the potential for another Lakes cutter for late next week...another higher impact convective system may be in the cards. Still 7-8 days out but something to monitor nonetheless. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 5/18Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 IMPACTS: Southwesterly winds for the remainder of the day, sustained from 7 to 12 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible. Winds will overnight to around 5 kts and become more southerly with periodic gusts to 15 kts. DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A broken ceiling around 25kft will continue to be in place through the afternoon and will thin out with time. CONFIDENCE: High confidence in VFR conditions. High confidence in winds up to 12kts today with low to medium confidence in winds greater than 15kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 236 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020 Above normal temperatures will continue. Below are the record high temperatures for Indianapolis for Friday through Tuesday. Friday 11/6...77 in 1975 Saturday 11/7...76 in 1915 Sunday 11/8...76 in 1999 Monday 11/9...76 in 1999 Tuesday 11/10...75 in 1949 && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...Ryan SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....Ryan AVIATION...KH