782 
FXUS65 KVEF 051133
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
333 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Pleasant fall weather will continue through Friday 
before a cold storm system brings a dramatic drop in temperatures 
and increasing chances for rain and snow over the weekend. Strong 
and gusty winds will develop on Friday. Temperatures are expected to 
remain well below normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

Today...Do expect to see some high clouds increase from the 
southwest throughout the day. Although, don't believe they will have 
much impact on our temperatures from reaching record levels. No 
significant winds expected.

Friday-Sunday...Can't believe how similar the GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble 
synoptic pattern is through the weekend. The first deep low that 
will impact the region will mostly be a wind producer for Friday-
Friday night. Models have continued to slightly slow the 
southeastward progression of the low into northern California late 
Friday afternoon. Great Basin surface pressure falls and downward 
momentum of winds aloft suggest strongest winds will be across parts 
of Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, Lincoln Counties as well as the Spring 
Mountains and Sheep Range. Will be issuing a Wind Advisory for those 
areas with this package. Looks breezy-windy elsewhere but right now 
anticipate winds staying below criteria. Also, did not expand the 
Red Flag Warning. This first trough is slated to swing across the 
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert Saturday ushering in much 
colder temperatures, breezy conditions and mostly light 
precipitation. With snow levels lowering some of the precipitation 
will accumulate as snow between 4000-5000 feet. Second, intense lobe 
of vorticity will pivot across the region Sunday-Sunday Night. Some 
of the guidance suggests that this system may have a better tap of 
moisture, especially across the Colorado River Valley, eastern Clark 
and Lincoln Counties then east across western Arizona. Strong 
forcing, cold air and this moisture tap could lead to greater 
precipitation and eventual impacts from accumulating snows. Again, 
the heaviest accumulations would likely be above 5000 feet with 
lighter accumulations down to 4000 feet. Too early to consider 
any winter weather headlines. 

Monday-Wednesday...Some light precipitation could linger into Monday 
across northwest Arizona as the trough slowly exits the region. 
Pattern remains progressive, active as ensembles show a weaker 
trough across the Great Basin on Veterans Day. Bottom line, 
temperatures will remain cool next week.

&&   

.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning remains in effect. Strongest belt 
of winds looks to reside over Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye Counties 
Friday. The eastern Sierra Slopes and Spring Mountains could see 
periods of downslope winds which could produce locally stronger 
winds. Humidity levels are expected to fall below critical 
thresholds in the mid to lower elevations while remaining above 
thresholds in the higher elevations. Also, the lack of precipitation 
over the past 6 months has kept fuels at critical levels in all our 
zones as ERC values are well above normal for early November.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Typical wind pattern is expected to 
remain through Thursday, generally remaining below 10 knots. South 
to southwest winds will begin to increase Friday morning in response 
to an approaching weather system. Winds are expected to peak Friday 
afternoon-evening with gusts to around 20-25 knots. Clear skies will 
give way by the late afternoon today as mid to high level moisture 
moves across the region from the southwest. By 03Z Friday, expect 
SCT to BKN aoa 20 Kft and some FEW aoa 12-15 Kft.  


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Typical wind patterns are expected at most terminals 
today. Though, some north winds are expected down the Colorado River 
Valley with winds 10-12 knots and occasional gusts to 15-20 knots, 
especially near KIFP. Elsewhere, winds should remain below 10 knots 
through tonight. Westerly winds are expected to increase across the 
southern Sierra later tonight but are not expected to reach KBIH. 
Clear skies will give way by the late afternoon today as mid to high 
level moisture moves across the region from the southwest, generally 
remaining aoa 15 Kft. South to southwest winds are expected to 
increase area-wide late morning Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...High temperatures will approach records again today 
and in a few locations on Friday. The table below shows 
the record high temperature for each location and the year the 
record was last set, followed by the forecast for each day.

					THU NOV 5	        FRI NOV 6
				 Record(Yr)/Fcst    Record(Yr)/Fcst

Las Vegas		  84(1980) / 84  	 85(1988) / 85
Death Valley	  96(2012) / 94	  	 96(2012) / 95
Kingman 		  87(1921) / 87 	 89(1921) / 84 
Bishop 			  82(1950) / 81 	 81(1955) / 75 
Barstow Daggett   87(1980) / 87 	 88(1991) / 85 
Needles 		  91(2012) / 92 	 91(2012) / 91

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...Pierce
AVIATION...Kryston


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