210 
FXUS62 KMLB 171934
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
334 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Rip Currents, Rough Surf Ongoing
into Monday Due to Strong Onshore Winds, High Astronomical 
Tides...

...Deteriorating Boating Conditions Tonight into Sunday...

Rest of Today-Tonight...Most dry across east-central FL this
afternoon, aside from a few light showers moving onshore in
Brevard and Martin Counties. Breezy northeast winds continue into
tonight, sustained winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph along 
the coast. A surge of low-level moisture is starting to move 
towards the Volusia coast, and this will result in some showers 
heading into this evening. 

Have kept a 30 percent chance of showers into tonight for 
Volusia, and a 20 percent chance for the rest of our coast south 
to Martin County. Nighttime lows still running above normal in the
upper 60s inland, to mid 70s at the coast.

Seas continue to build over the next few days, coincident with 
the annual "King Tides" or the highest tidal cycle of the year. 
Interests along the immediate coast should be prepared for higher 
surf due to the incoming surge and tides, which will lead to minor
beach erosion and potential of coastal flooding past the dune 
line. Beachgoers should remain extremely cautious as the rip 
current threat will be high, with poor conditions along the coast 
through Monday. 

Sunday-Wednesday...Model guidance remains consistent with the 
synoptic pattern into next week. A mid-level ridge extending from 
Florida to off the SE CONUS will build NE and strengthen. This 
will maintain the strong surface high pressure ridge over the 
eastern CONUS/western Atlantic, keeping Florida in a persistent, 
breezy NE-E flow pattern, which may abate a bit by Wednesday. 

Most models show a surge of moisture moving into the region
Sunday, bringing much higher rain chances compared to what we have
seen these past few days. The highest rain chances will be over 
the southern third of the area, still expect at least 30-50 
percent chance of rain elsewhere, with lower rain chances farther 
inland.

Rain chances Monday through Wednesday return to expected early
fall values, at around 30 percent area wide. Given we're now in 
mid- October with E-NE boundary layer flow near 20kt, the chance 
for lightning storms on the east side of the peninsula should be 
minimal to nil, perhaps on a slight uptick by Wednesday as the 
gradient may be just a tad weaker by then.

Max temps M80s near the coast, U80s inland, with mins M-U70s at the 
immediate coast, L70s west of I-95. Dangerous surf conditions will 
continue at the central Florida Atlantic beaches through early next 
week.

Thursday-Saturday...(Previous Discussion) The strong eastern 
CONUS/western Atlantic ridge will break down Fri-Sat as a large 
trough develops over the central and eastern CONUS. Op model 
guidance differs on the amplitude of the approaching short wave 
energy, with the ECM stronger than the GFS. While this pattern 
would favor keeping any potential Caribbean-based disturbance to 
the S/E of the area, the ECM continues to develop a fairly stout 
baroclinic low over the eastern GOMEX, which lifts NE into the 
eastern CONUS this weekend. This would veer the flow more 
southerly, and increase mean moisture and rain chances. The GFS 
shows no such entity, keeping the area onshore/easterly flow.

Like last night, the forecast continues to favor a persistence 
forecast, with onshore flow and scattered (30-40 pct) showers and 
TS. Max temps look quite similar to the first half of the week, with 
mins in the L70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...

Northeast winds will continue tonight but the gustiness will 
diminish with sunset and wind direction over the interior will 
become light north. Brief VFR CIGs 035-050AGL as marine stratocu 
push onshore.  Isold SHRA possible with highest chance btwn DAB-MLB 
through 00Z. On Sun, wind veers E to E/NE and pressure gradient will 
support similar wind speeds, 15 knots and gusty at the coast spreading
inland during the afternoon. There will be a higher coverage of 
SHRA pushing onshore so will likely need to add TEMPO groups for 
coastal terminals. 

&&

.MARINE...

Rest of Today-Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions developing as
northeast winds increase to 15-20 knots tonight from north to 
south over the local waters. Seas will be a little slower to 
respond, with heights of 3-4 feet reaching 5-7 feet after sunset.
Near the coast, the higher than normal tidal cycle combined with 
higher wave heights will produce the threat for coastal flooding 
and beach erosion. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect north
of the Cape, and will go into effect for the rest of the waters
by sunrise Sunday. 

Sunday-Wednesday...Extended period of hazardous boating conditions 
continues, as a long fetch of ENE-E winds near 20 knots maintains
itself for several days. Increasing wind chop and swell will 
allow seas to fully build, reaching 5-7 feet and eventually 6-8
feet along the coast and up to around 9 feet offshore. Small Craft
Advisory is sure to be extended well beyond the current expiration
time of Monday evening, likely for much of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor Flood 
Stage through early next week. Elsewhere, the Saint Johns River at 
Sanford and above Lake Harney, is forecast to stay within Action 
Stage, while at DeLand the river is forecast to remain below Action 
Stage. Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the 
latest river levels and forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  83  72  85 /  30  50  30  40 
MCO  71  86  72  87 /  10  40  30  40 
MLB  76  85  74  85 /  30  50  40  40 
VRB  75  86  74  87 /  30  50  50  30 
LEE  70  86  71  87 /  10  40  20  30 
SFB  71  86  72  86 /  20  40  30  40 
ORL  72  87  74  87 /  10  40  30  40 
FPR  74  84  74  85 /  30  50  50  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. 
     Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County 
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for 
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard 
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for 
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Rodriguez/Combs/Kelly