677 
FXUS61 KBTV 170221
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1021 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across 
Vermont this evening and into Saturday morning before high 
pressure builds in and clears out any lingering precipitation. 
Decreasing clouds will yield a very seasonal day on Saturday 
with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Dry weather will 
continue into Saturday but we could see some gusty south to 
southwest winds during the afternoon hours. Unsettled and 
seasonal weather looks to continue through much of next week 
with a series of cold fronts expected to bring periods of 
rainfall to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1017 PM EDT Friday...Rain continues over much of Vermont
this evening. While radar trends and guidance indicate rain
event coming to an end over the Champlain Valley, still several
waves of additional rain progged to move through eastern Vermont
tonight. Overall precipitation amounts thus far today range from
about 0.4 to 0.9 inches, with Northeastern Vermont reporting the
most rain so far. A quick look at hydrographs across the area
shows some rises on area rivers as expected, but no flooding
concerns with base flow still quite low.  

Previous discussion...The forecast is playing out as 
anticipated today. Currently, a swath of moderate to heavy rain 
is moving through Vermont, while rain is decreasing across 
northern New York. This is mainly due to a quasi- stationary 
front that is located along the New England Coast paired with 
favorable dynamics aloft. Rain has mostly ended for the northern
New York areas, totaling 1/2 to 1 inch of rain today with the 
greatest amounts across southern Saint Lawrence County. Rain 
will continue across Vermont through the evening and overnight 
hours, abating Saturday morning as the surface front lifts to 
the northeast and surface high pressure pushes in from the west.
Overall, still expecting a broad area of 1-2 inches of rain 
across Vermont by Saturday morning. A mix of rain and snow is 
anticipated for mountainous locations through the overnight 
hours as a colder air mass continues to advect in from the 
northwest. During this time, summit temperatures are expected to
drop near or below freezing, making it possible for a few 
inches of snow to accumulate at these locations by Saturday 
morning.

Skies will clear Saturday morning from west to east as surface high
pressure begins to encroach upon the region, which may allow some
valley fog to develop within the Saint Lawrence Valley and portions
of the Adirondacks. Saturday morning low temperatures will be
coolest across northern New York, in the low 30s, while in the mid
to upper 30s in Vermont. Mostly sunny skies can be expected
throughout the day Saturday with near normal high temperatures in
the 50s. Clear skies will continue overnight Saturday into Sunday,
allowing temperatures to drop near or below freezing for much of the
North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Sunday continues to look like a nice fall
day across the North Country, especially in Vermont where skies
should stay partly sunny all day. Temperatures should be near or a
few degrees above normal with highs topping out just above 60 in
many locations. While winds won't be too strong given that the
strength of the pressure gradient over the area will be modest,
south winds of 10-15 mph should be common. High clouds out ahead of
the next cold front will overspread northern New York by the
afternoon. These clouds will lower and thicken towards evening and
the high clouds should overspread the rest of the forecast area by
around midnight. Showers associated the cold front should eventually
reach the St. Lawrence Valley by Monday morning, with up to 0.1" of
rainfall possible through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 359 PM EDT Friday...The work week weather will generally be
mild and unsettled. A few showers will be over northern New York
stretching northeastward into far northern Vermont Monday morning,
with this corridor likely receiving less than 0.25" total from this
event and little or no rain expected to the south and east. with
overcast skies overspreading the North Country, reinforced by warm
air from the south sloping over the frontal boundary. Expect mainly
cloudy skies through Tuesday morning as a moisture-laden wave of
weak low pressure moves through northern New York along the front.
In the Champlain Valley, this scenario supports briefly windy
conditions ahead of the low and before rain showers arrive. The low
pressure system will move rapidly through with a period of moderate
rainfall mostly limited to around six hours, so rainfall amounts
should be limited. Again, highest precipitation chances will be in
the St. Lawrence Valley, with showers most likely confined to most
of northern New York and northern Vermont with diminishing chances
of rain as you head southeast towards Springfield, VT. Behind this
system, winds will turn out of the north and northwest allowing for
a brief dry period Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Temperatures should be a little chillier during this period under
the influence of Canadian high pressure, so have trended low
temperatures down from the previous forecast for that period.

By Wednesday afternoon, high pressure should retreat to the
northeast, allowing warmer air to again surge northward and another
wave of low pressure to move through the region. The GFS continues
to advertise a relatively strong system for Wednesday with similarly
high moisture given transport from the western Gulf of Mexico. With
the surface front established farther south and east, greatest
precipitation chances appear to be over southern Vermont but the
whole North Country could receive substantial, stratiform rain from
this system. Model consensus indicates rain chances should peak late
Wednesday. Temperatures will be rather warm aloft so despite the
chilly surface flow over the area no concerns for snow, even at high
elevations. The front still will be lingering somewhere in our
vicinity on Thursday supporting continued chances of precipitation,
but a drying trend should be in the offing by late Thursday when the
boundary is most likely to lift well to our north.

To end the week, there is currently excellent model agreement on a
strong cold front finally moving through the North Country to bring
us cold weather for next weekend. The front would be accompanied by
a quick shot of showers and potential for thunderstorms, especially
southern areas. Expect highs on Friday to be well into the 60s with
70s possible in most areas, especially if frontal passage is late in
the day. We'll be watching the potential for strong south winds
ahead of the front and gusty northwest winds behind the front, as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Waves of rain continue along a frontal
boundary that is stalled over the New England Coast. This rain
will continue to affect Vermont TAF sites...especially southern
and eastern Vermont (KMPV and KRUT)....with periodic MVFR 
ceilings and visibilities through the night. In the Champlain 
Valley, steady rain is coming to an end at KBTV and KPBG, and 
both of these TAF sites have already improved to VFR conditions.
VFR expected to persist through the TAF period at KBTV and 
KPBG. Further west in northern NY, a drier night with just some
VFR clouds is in store for KSLK and KMSS, although there is 
some potential for some brief fog development at either of 
these TAF sites if they are able to clear out overnight. 
Confidence is not high on fog development however, so have left 
out of the TAF. 

Widespread VFR conditions are expected after 15Z Saturday with
high pressure building in. Winds will be light and variable
overnight, trending west/northwesterly 5-10 kts after 12Z.  

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hammond
NEAR TERM...Duell/Hammond
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Duell