000 
FXUS63 KOAX 151728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Today:

After the passage of yesterdays front, the weather will turn 
mainly quiet and colder over the next several days. Portions of 
northeast nebraska had early morning temperatures dipping down 
into the mid to upper 30s. Farther south, lows were mainly in the 
mid 40s. In the wake of the cold front expect winds to remain out 
of the northwest today, although much lighter at 10 to 20 mph. 
Temps today will feel quite cool with highs only in the mid 50s 
which is about 10 degrees below normal.

Friday:

The cooler temperatures will hold firmly in place as an upper level 
trough sags through the Midwestern states. Friday morning will 
likely see below freezing temperatures across much of northeastern 
Nebraska and much of western Iowa. Farther south, will likely see
patchy frost potential for other portions of the area. Confidence
is a little lower with the frost potential though as winds from
the northwest may remain at 5 to 10 mph through the overnight
which would limit frost development. Regardless, temperatures 
look like they will be in the 33 to 36 degree range across much of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. With all that said, have 
issued a freeze warning in northeast Nebraska for Thursday night 
into Friday morning. This issuance will end the issuance of 
frost/freeze products in this area as widespread near or below 
freezing temperatures are likely and we are now about a week past 
the typical growing season. Areas within the frost advisory 
(mainly areas south of the Platte River) may still be susceptible 
to freezing temperatures past Friday morning, but that will be 
determined later. Otherwise expect another clear and cool day with
highs in the 50s again.

Saturday and Sunday:

A brief but noticeable warmup should be expected on Saturday as 
we await the next approaching system which will arrive Saturday 
evening. But before then, expect a more average day with highs in 
the 60s and as high as the lower 70s in southern Nebraska and 
Iowa. Unfortunately we are in for another shock to the system as a
strong cold front swings through Saturday evening and overnight. 
This will bring a blast of Canadian air and another chance of 
below freezing temperatures to our northern area early Sunday 
morning. Although moisture is not substantial, it does look like 
there will be a chance of precip with the passage of the front. 
Perhaps even a snowflake or two as the cold air filters in, but 
don't expect any snow accumulations. Be sure to grab an extra 
layer for Sunday as highs will only be 45 to 50 degrees. 

The Workweek:

As we head into next week, it's going to be chilly... highs will 
be around 45 to 55 on Monday which is 10-15 degrees below normal. 
Lows will be back in the 30s and the potential for another freeze 
for much or all of our area. Through Wednesday, expect mainly dry 
conditions and a gradual warmup each day. Near normal high 
temperatures will be back in the forecast for Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

VFR conditions are forecast through Friday morning. Northwest
winds gusting to 20kt will continue through 00Z before settling
back to less than 10kt. Scattered clouds near FL060 will go broken
for a period late this afternoon and evening before scattering out
again by sunrise Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for NEZ043>045-050-
     051-065-066-078.

IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Dergan