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766 FXUS62 KMLB 130046 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 845 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020 .UPDATE... Showers dissipated a little after sunset over the far SE CWA, leaving just a few showers to redevelop well offshore between Fort Pierce and Jupiter inlets. This activity may linger over the warm Gulf stream waters into the overnight. Otherwise, skies will be mainly clear tonight. Have added some patchy later night fog to the grids for Lake and adjacent western Orange/NW Osceola Cos, as indicated by LAV guidance. && .AVIATION...VFR most areas with SCT LCL BKN050-070 from MCO-TIX northward gradually dissipating. Expect some MVFR/IFR mist and fog/stratus (BKN002) to develop near LEE by 08-09Z (perhaps a bit earlier), possibly seeping E-SE toward ISM-MCO-SFB-DAB thru 13Z. Thereafter, VFR redeveloping areawide with LCL SCT035-050. && .MARINE...Benign conditions offshore with light synoptic NW-N wind flow of less than 10kt and seas 2ft or less. Isolated showers over the southern Gulf Stream waters. && Cristaldi/Negron && .Prev Discussion... /issued 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020/ Tue-Fri...A weak reinforcing "back-door" front passes south/east from central to southern FL early in the period as a weak pressure gradient continues over the region. NWRLY light winds will veer to NE during the day on Tue, then L/V Tue night, NERLY areawide again on Wed, and light ERLY Wed night-Thu. Another weak boundary presses southward across the area on Fri with an uptick in onshore winds Fri night. Moisture values will be modest at best during this period. Continue to keep Tue-Wed night mainly dry, then a small threat for showers on Thu and perhaps a slight threat for lightning storms toward Lake Okeechobee in the afternoon. A slightly better chance for precipitation on Fri with greater moisture areawide, but especially south of I-4. Both highs/lows continue above normal during this time. Sat-Mon...Post frontal conditions on Sat as high pressure builds into the region from the NW. A tighter pressure gradient will spell an uptick in onshore flow, especially at the coast on Sat afternoon. The GFS depicts this onshore flow continuing into early next week. Medium range model guidance suggests moisture overrunning the most recent front over the weekend into early next week, but there may develop a rather tight gradient from near the Cape southward which would favor the highest precip chances (30pct) here. Best chances areawide on Mon. For temperatures, we are showing cooler readings post-frontal over this period with U70s north of I-4 Sat and 80-84F southward, and L80s areawide Sun/Mon. Lows in the 60s for much of the area, especially interior with L-M70s still possible near the immediate Space and Treasure coasts. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing, with dry conditions at most ECFL terminals. The exception is KSUA on the far southern Treasure Coast, where showers and a couple of thunderstorms will continue to push offshore before sunset. Will update TEMPO groups there as needed. A few showers have developed far enough north to warrant VCSH at KFPR, but those should push south of that terminal by 21Z. Otherwise, westerly winds will become light overnight. Most model guidance does not suggest the possibility of fog overnight, but will monitor for subsequent TAF packages. Most likely places, should any fog form, would be inland terminals (KLEE). Winds will veer northerly tomorrow, remaining generally below 10kts. && .MARINE... W/NW winds around 5-10 KT this afternoon will then weaken and become more variable this evening behind the passing weak frontal boundary. W/NW winds at 5-10 KT will then return for the overnight hours. A weak east coast sea breeze may try to develop later this afternoon, particularly along the Treasure Coast. Seas will range from 1-2 feet nearshore up to 2-3 feet offshore with a dominate period of 8 seconds. Offshore moving scattered showers and isolated storms possible this afternoon and evening along the coast of Martin and St. Lucie counties. These showers and storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes. Tue-Fri...Weak front traverses the local coastal waters early on Tue with NWRLY winds transitioning to N/NE by late in the day. N/NE winds continuing Tue night, then NERLY areawide on Wed and becoming ERLY Wed overnight into Thu. Winds continue to veer southerly Thu night with the approach of the next front. Slightly stronger pressure gradient Fri night into Sat morning as winds quickly switch behind the latest boundary to NERLY with speeds approaching 14-17 kts. Mainly dry conditions Tue/Wed with a small threat of showery precip returning for Thu/Fri. Seas AOB 3 ft thru Wed night with some 4 ft seas possible well offshore Thu-Thu night, then possibly again Fri overnight. && .HYDROLOGY... The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor Flood Stage this week. Elsewhere along the Saint Johns River near Deland, Sanford, and above Lake Harney, the river level is forecast to stay within Action Stage. Refer to daily Flood Statements from NWS Melbourne for the latest river levels and forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 86 69 87 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 69 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 70 87 71 87 / 10 0 0 10 VRB 69 87 69 87 / 10 0 10 10 LEE 69 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 69 88 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 71 89 72 90 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 67 86 69 86 / 10 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$