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182 FXUS63 KMQT 052339 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 739 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 334 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 Partly cloudy skies over the U.P. will allow breezy conditions to continue for the next few hours as daytime heating sustains the mixing of the boundary layer winds as a trough moves through the area. Wind speeds will be in the 97.5th percentile at the 850mb according to the ENS and the NAEFS during this period. The lakeshore flood advisory for Delta and southern Schoolcraft counties still looks good. Winds look to decrease once the sun sets, as a nocturnal inversion will set up and keep the sfc winds from mixing with the 850mb layer winds. As the trough makes it's way through the U.P. over the evening hours, expect a line of showers to move through from west-to-east overnight. Models suggest that the greatest chance for rainfall from this line of showers is over in the e. Another shot of rain looks to occur Tue. afternoon, as a low pressure develops, moving se from Lake Winnipeg to Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 320 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 Long term period begins with a low transiting the region just along the north end of Lake Superior. This low looks to lack significant moisture, but given it'll be aided by left exit dynamics at 300mb, some widespread rain showers are still expected. Through Tuesday night, the showers will progress from west to east along the surface cold front. Guidance is in good agreement that the synoptic rain should be east of the region by the Wednesday morning commute. Following the frontal passage overnight, winds will shift northwest, and with increasing CAA, should increase to near-gales on the eastern half of Lake Superior. With this increase in winds, wave response on Lake Superior will likely result significant waves climbing above 10ft in the eastern portions of Lake Superior. This may end up causing some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion for lakeshores east of Marquette. On Wednesday, with the cooler air settling in, highs are only expected to top out on the 50s across the region. Aloft at 850mb, temps look to gradually decrease to near +1 to -1C, which with Lake Superior hovering near 10C, some lake effect rain showers will be possible for the NW wind belts. Into the evening, with high pressure building in with a dry airmass and relaxing pressure gradient, lows should dip back near normal across the region. The cooler daytime temps are expected to linger into Thursday, but given the lighter winds, it should be a more enjoyable day outside. Through the day Thursday, WAA will increase and by Friday afternoon following the passage of a warm front, strong WAA will result in 850mb temps climbing above +10C again. Daytime highs on Friday look to be above 65F in the west and low 60s in the east; some light rain showers may also develop along this boundary. The parent system to the north should swing a weak cold front through overnight Friday into Saturday resulting in a return to near normal to slightly above normal temps for the remainder of the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 738 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 Expect VFR conditions to prevail thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. A cold front will sweep across the area tonight, possibly producing a -shra or a few sprinkles for about an hr at all terminals. Otherwise, low-level jet will shift e with fropa, but until it does so, low-level wind shear is expected at KCMX/KSAW as low levels stabilize with loss of daytime heating. Next approaching low pres system will begin to spread -shra into the area later in the aftn on Tue, but at this point, don't expect conditions to drop out of VFR. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 334 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2020 Lake Superior looks to have three notable events of 20+ kts for this forecast period. The first event is happening now, with southerly gales up to 40 kts occurring across the e. Once the sun sets, the gales look to end over the next few hours, as mixing of the boundary layer winds to the sfc will be inhibited by a nocturnal inversion. The second event looks to happen over the e again late Tuesday night, with nw gales of 35 kts possible before sunrise. Winds across the west look to also be between 20-30 kts during the time of the possible gales late Tuesday night. Wednesday will see winds decrease across the lake. The third event is where southerly winds look to reach speeds between 20-25 kts over e. Winds for this event may increase as the date for the event approaches. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ013-014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ251-267. Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ249-250-266. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ221. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...TAP