AFOS product AFDBGM
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBGM
Product Timestamp: 2020-10-05 19:23 UTC

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742 
FXUS61 KBGM 051923
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Remaining mostly cloudy this evening with a few sprinkles or 
light showers possible. Areas of fog are expected in the valleys
early Tuesday morning, and could be locally dense. Another 
storm system will affect the region during the middle of the 
week with additional showers Wednesday into Thursday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Expecting generally quiet and seasonable weather for the near
term period. 

Staying partly to mostly cloudy this evening, with a few
isolated showers or sprinkles possible through sunset.Temperatures
holding in the mid-50s to around 60.

Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will allow 
additional low level stratus clouds and valley fog to form 
tonight...cannot even rule out some patchy drizzle across the 
eastern portion of the forecast area; out toward the Catskills. 
Seasonably cool temperatures overnight with lows in the upper
30s to mid-40s.

After some early morning valley fog (some locally dense), 
conditions should clear out, turning mostly sunny and mild for 
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will be centered just to our 
south. Southwest winds do increase slightly, at 8-15 mph. High 
temperatures are forecast to be between 65-70 in most locations.

Clouds quickly return toward sunset and into the evening hours
as a weak prefrontal trough approaches from the west. Clouds
continue to increase overnight, becoming mostly cloudy. A few
light rain showers are also possible, mainly afternoon midnight
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Breezy southwest
winds and the extensive cloud cover will keep it mild, with 
lows only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 am update...

Low pressure will track across Southern Ontario and Quebec
through the day Wednesday and drag a strong cold front across
our area. 

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning a warm front will push
northeast through NY, putting our region well within the warm 
sector of the approaching low. Warm air/moisture advection out
ahead of the approaching cold front will help produce some low-
end instability by early Wednesday afternoon. NAM forecast
sounding showing up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE at KRME. A potent 
short wave digs southeast across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday
morning and will provide strong forcing as it crosses Central 
NY Wednesday afternoon. There is some concern that a rather 
potent line of convection could form along the cold front 
Wednesday afternoon. Low level flow is looking quite strong, 
with about 50 knots at only 4K to 5K feet and if a line of 
convection were to develop, downward momentum transfer may 
bring some damaging wind gusts to the surface, but still some 
uncertainty on how things will unfold Wednesday afternoon. If 
the timing of the front is earlier in our area than the threat 
for any severe storms will likely be further east into Northern New
England. Also, the exact track of the low across Southern 
Canada will determine how far south the storm threat will be. 
At this time, the best chance for a strong line of storms is 
along and north of the NYS Thruway Corridor, but that could 
change. 

Strong cold air advection behind the passing front is expected
Wednesday night into Thursday. Lake effect rain showers will be
possible east/southeast of the lakes through Thursday. Thursday
will be quite blustery as well, with gusts out of the NW at 25 
to 30 mph possible and high temperatures only in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 am update... Strong high pressure builds into the NE U.S.
Thursday night and should persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will be on the increase this weekend as well, with
the high shifting east of the region, allowing warm SW flow to
push into the Northeast. An upper ridge will settle over the
Eastern U.S. towards the end of the weekend and will likely
continue to provide dry weather and above average temperatures
as we head through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18z Update

Bkn cloud deck remains in place across Central NY and NE PA this
afternoon, with borderline MVFR to low end VFR bases. CIGS are
currently running between about 2-4k ft agl. Expect these clouds
to slowly lift and scatter during the late afternoon and early
evening hours, with all taf sites expected to become VFR. 

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions, clearing skies, and light
winds this evening and into the overnight period.

Light winds and mostly clear skies will cause river valley fog
to form late tonight. IFR conditions could affect KELM during
the 06z to 13z Tuesday. Patchy fog could also occasionally
impact the other taf sites, bringing MVFR vsbys near RME. Not
enough probability or confidence yet at other remaining sites
(SYR, ITH, BGM, AVP) to include any restrictions from fog/mist
Tuesday morning. Fog/mist seems unlikely at SYR and ITH as a
south-southeast wind develops.

All TAF sites are forecast to be VFR, under mostly clear skies
mid to late morning, and all of Tuesday afternoon. Southwest
winds increase between 8-15 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night...Likely VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Low pressure system with a trailing
cold front brings scattered rain showers with associated 
restrictions at times; especially NY terminals.

Thursday night through Saturday...High pressure. Likely VFR; 
except possible valley fog early in the morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MJM