National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBGM
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBGM
Product Timestamp: 2020-10-05 19:23 UTC
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742 FXUS61 KBGM 051923 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 323 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Remaining mostly cloudy this evening with a few sprinkles or light showers possible. Areas of fog are expected in the valleys early Tuesday morning, and could be locally dense. Another storm system will affect the region during the middle of the week with additional showers Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Expecting generally quiet and seasonable weather for the near term period. Staying partly to mostly cloudy this evening, with a few isolated showers or sprinkles possible through sunset.Temperatures holding in the mid-50s to around 60. Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will allow additional low level stratus clouds and valley fog to form tonight...cannot even rule out some patchy drizzle across the eastern portion of the forecast area; out toward the Catskills. Seasonably cool temperatures overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. After some early morning valley fog (some locally dense), conditions should clear out, turning mostly sunny and mild for Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will be centered just to our south. Southwest winds do increase slightly, at 8-15 mph. High temperatures are forecast to be between 65-70 in most locations. Clouds quickly return toward sunset and into the evening hours as a weak prefrontal trough approaches from the west. Clouds continue to increase overnight, becoming mostly cloudy. A few light rain showers are also possible, mainly afternoon midnight across the northern portion of the forecast area. Breezy southwest winds and the extensive cloud cover will keep it mild, with lows only in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 410 am update... Low pressure will track across Southern Ontario and Quebec through the day Wednesday and drag a strong cold front across our area. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning a warm front will push northeast through NY, putting our region well within the warm sector of the approaching low. Warm air/moisture advection out ahead of the approaching cold front will help produce some low- end instability by early Wednesday afternoon. NAM forecast sounding showing up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE at KRME. A potent short wave digs southeast across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday morning and will provide strong forcing as it crosses Central NY Wednesday afternoon. There is some concern that a rather potent line of convection could form along the cold front Wednesday afternoon. Low level flow is looking quite strong, with about 50 knots at only 4K to 5K feet and if a line of convection were to develop, downward momentum transfer may bring some damaging wind gusts to the surface, but still some uncertainty on how things will unfold Wednesday afternoon. If the timing of the front is earlier in our area than the threat for any severe storms will likely be further east into Northern New England. Also, the exact track of the low across Southern Canada will determine how far south the storm threat will be. At this time, the best chance for a strong line of storms is along and north of the NYS Thruway Corridor, but that could change. Strong cold air advection behind the passing front is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Lake effect rain showers will be possible east/southeast of the lakes through Thursday. Thursday will be quite blustery as well, with gusts out of the NW at 25 to 30 mph possible and high temperatures only in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 415 am update... Strong high pressure builds into the NE U.S. Thursday night and should persist through the weekend. Temperatures will be on the increase this weekend as well, with the high shifting east of the region, allowing warm SW flow to push into the Northeast. An upper ridge will settle over the Eastern U.S. towards the end of the weekend and will likely continue to provide dry weather and above average temperatures as we head through next week. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18z Update Bkn cloud deck remains in place across Central NY and NE PA this afternoon, with borderline MVFR to low end VFR bases. CIGS are currently running between about 2-4k ft agl. Expect these clouds to slowly lift and scatter during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with all taf sites expected to become VFR. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions, clearing skies, and light winds this evening and into the overnight period. Light winds and mostly clear skies will cause river valley fog to form late tonight. IFR conditions could affect KELM during the 06z to 13z Tuesday. Patchy fog could also occasionally impact the other taf sites, bringing MVFR vsbys near RME. Not enough probability or confidence yet at other remaining sites (SYR, ITH, BGM, AVP) to include any restrictions from fog/mist Tuesday morning. Fog/mist seems unlikely at SYR and ITH as a south-southeast wind develops. All TAF sites are forecast to be VFR, under mostly clear skies mid to late morning, and all of Tuesday afternoon. Southwest winds increase between 8-15 kts. Outlook... Tuesday Night...Likely VFR. Wednesday and Thursday...Low pressure system with a trailing cold front brings scattered rain showers with associated restrictions at times; especially NY terminals. Thursday night through Saturday...High pressure. Likely VFR; except possible valley fog early in the morning. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP/MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MJM