517 
FXUS63 KIND 051843
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
243 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

After a frosty start to the morning, high pressure will bring
sunny skies and warming temperatures to the area today.
Temperatures will warm over the next couple of days with high
pressure sliding off to the east and getting southwesterly winds 
over the area bringing in warmer temperatures. Dry conditions will
continue through the week under the influence of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

With some temperatures in the non-advisory area dropping into the 
lower 30s with calm winds and clear skies, have expanded the frost 
advisory to include the entire forecast area. Previous discussion 
follows...

Temperatures across the forecast area are in the low to middle 30s
at 3 am, with similar dewpoints and light to calm winds. Satellite
continues to show few to scattered clouds moving their way south 
from lake Michigan and reaching into a few of the northern 
counties. Frost advisory continues across much of the area through
9 am.

Surface high pressure currently centered over central illinois
will slide east across the area today. With good subsidence in
place and the high overhead, winds should be fairly light through
the day with no gusts expected and skies should be clear. The
sunny skies will allow for good warming despite starting out so
cool, and highs should climb into the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...

Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Surface high pressure will slide off to the east by Tuesday, with
warm southwesterly flow becoming established on the back side of
the high. Good subsidence will continue into Tuesday and expect to
see clear skies tonight and Tuesday. Tonight despite the clear
skies temperatures should not drop as much as early this morning
with strong warm advection at 850 mb. This warm advection will
continue into Wednesday, bringing high temperatures just above 
normal for Tuesday and then near 10 degrees above normal in the 
middle 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday.

As the high slides off to the east, a clipper system will approach
the northern Great Lakes from the northwest. High pressure solidly
in place across the southeast U.S. though will keep this wave and
its associated forcing well north and the northeast of the 
forecast area. In its wake surface Canadian high pressure will
slide back in from the northwest, ushering in slightly cooler
temperatures for Wednesday night.

Tuesday afternoon, with the high off to the east and the pressure
gradient increasing across the area, should see wind gusts
increase to around 20 to 25 mph out of the southwest. On Wednesday
afternoon as a dry cold front moves through the area and the
pressure gradient increases once again, wind gusts around 30 mph
look feasible given the potential for some stronger winds aloft to
mix down.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...

Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Dry weather is expected during this period.

ECMWF shows a zonal flow in place aloft on Thursday night which
begins to re-establish strong ridging aloft by Monday. This will 
continue to steer any storms well north of Indiana. Of note...the 
ECMWF also suggests a tropical system pushing through LA and the 
Tennessee River valley on Saturday and into Sunday. Forcing and 
moisture looks too remain too far south to impact Central 
Indiana...however a few more clouds...mainly south would appear 
possible.

At the surface through the period high pressure is expected move
across Indiana on Thursday before exiting to the east coast by
Saturday. Meanwhile...surface troughing looks to be in 
development over the western plains on Sunday...leading toward 
southerly and warmer flow late next week and early next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 051800Z Tafs/...

Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020

VFR conditions will be expected this period.

Strong high pressure over Indiana will continue to provide dry
weather and unlimited CIGs through this Taf period. Forecast
soundings and Time heights continue to depict a dry column across
the TAF sites this afternoon through tomorrow.

As the high moves east of Indiana on Tuesday...a stronger surface
pressure gradient is expected across Indiana...leading to some
wind gusts of 10-20 kts at that time. Otherwise...skies will
remain clear.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP