320 
FXUS63 KDDC 010538
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

A cold front pushed through earlier this morning, however the 
strongest cold air advection had not reached much of southwest 
Kansas until midday, thus many areas saw temperatures rise to the 
lower to mid 80s before stabilizing in the afternoon. North winds 
will weaken tonight, and the combined dry airmass, clear sky, and 
cooler airmass in place should result in low temperatures of lower 
to mid 40s. There may be some patchy upper 30s across portions of 
west central Kansas, but there isn't any risk of a frost/freeze. 
Continued north winds on Thursday will keep the cooler airmass in 
place, and this will result in high temperatures around 15 degrees 
lower than today. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Warm and dry will be the continuing theme through the Long Term 
period (middle part of next week). Another shortwave trough will 
dive down the west side of the larger scale trough across the High 
Plains over the weekend, and this will bring a reinforcing front 
across the area. This minor disturbance may also provide just enough 
upward vertical motion for some light precipitation, however the 
ECMWF is still the only one of the three global deterministic models 
to show any QPF across western Kansas, and it's pretty scant at 
that. We will continue the dry forecast, however if there is any 
period in the Long Term that would have POP introduction, it would 
be the Saturday period (mainly morning). This storm system will 
swing by rapidly, and by early next week, we will see a warming 
trend as we remain in a northwest flow pattern aloft with the main 
polar jet shifted way back north into Canada. It is looking more 
like we will see several days next week of well-above average 
temperatures (particularly the highs).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

The area is behind a surface cold front Tonight, with deep layer 
cold advection ongoing. Sky will remain clear and visibility 
unobstructed overnight. An 850 mb ridge will be found in the 
westernmost counties on Thursday. Bufkit soundings show light winds 
in the afternoon near GCK with better potential for gusts around 25 
knots near HYS. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  67  43  75 /   0   0   0   0 
GCK  42  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  43  69  46  79 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  44  69  42  78 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  43  64  39  71 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  46  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell