599 
FXUS62 KMLB 221516
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1115 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to current forecast for today. Morning Cape 
sounding shows a strong subsidence inversion at 800 mb (~7000 ft) 
which marine stratocu is pancaking beneath as they stream onshore. 
Some of the stratocu will be wet, producing isolated light showers 
and sprinkles that will push well inland in breezy onshore flow. Any 
accumulations will be less than 0.10". High pressure centered over 
the Carolina piedmont will maintain a breezy E/NE flow but not as 
windy as yesterday. 

Will coordinate with surrounding offices, but our plan is to replace 
the Coastal Flood Warning for Volusia/Brevard with a Coastal Flood 
Advisory later this aftn and extend it into Thu along our entire 
coast.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds with marine stratocumulus SCT-BKN clouds at FL060-070 and 
diurnal cu field of FL035-045. Spotty light showers, mainly along 
the coast should not pose a sig threat for visual navigation, and 
the main issue will be breezy conditions of 15-20 kt with some 
higher gusts at coastal terminals. 


&&

.MARINE...
Solid Advisory conditions occurring over the adjacent Atlc waters 
and very choppy conditions on the intracoastal waters. Onshore winds 
around 20 kt and gusty. Combination of large swells and wind driven 
waves producing seas 9-11 ft nearshore and 11-13 ft offshore. High 
Surf with additional beach erosion and minor coastal flooding will 
continue for the next few high tide cycles. The next high tide is 
between 1230pm and 100 pm this afternoon. Winds will diminish 
further overnight to around 15 kts, however seas over all the waters 
will remain well above advisory criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate 
Flood through the weekend. The Saint Johns River above Lake Harney 
and Deland have reached Action Stage, and is forecast to remain 
steady in Action Stage through this week. The river is forecast to 
reach Action Stage at Sanford in the next day or so. Northeast winds 
and high astronomical tides are combining to prevent normal 
discharge on the Saint Johns River. Refer to Flood Statements from 
NWS Melbourne for the river levels and forecasts near Astor and Lake 
Harney, which will be updated daily while the points remain in flood 
stage. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  66  84  71 /  20  10  10  10 
MCO  83  67  86  71 /  20  10  10  10 
MLB  84  70  85  74 /  20  10  10  10 
VRB  84  69  85  73 /  20  10  10  10 
LEE  85  66  87  70 /  20  10  10   0 
SFB  84  66  86  70 /  20  10  10   0 
ORL  84  69  86  71 /  20  10  10   0 
FPR  83  68  85  74 /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this 
     evening for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern 
     Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. 
     Lucie.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Indian 
     River-Martin-St. Lucie.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal 
     Volusia-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to 
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to 
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Kelly