967 
FXUS61 KRLX 191808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
208 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in, bringing a long stretch of
dry, cool early Autumn weather through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

High pressure continues to keep the area dry and skies mostly
clear throughout the area. There is some lingering cloud cover 
along the southern portions of the area where lower level 
moisture is present, however these clouds should continue to 
clear out this evening into tonight as this moisture moves out. 
Temperatures tonight should be in the low to mid 40s for the 
lowlands, and mid to upper 30s for the mountains. Some areas do 
get cold enough to potentially have some frost tonight. 
Additionally, winds will be relatively light/calm tonight, along
with the clear skies, which should assist with frost formation 
in these areas. Thus, a Frost Advisory was issued for Pocahontas
County and the southeast Randolph County tonight through 8 AM 
on Sunday, with the greatest possibility for frost along the 
eastern portions of these counties. Sunday will continue to be 
dry and should be slightly warmer than today, with high 
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the lowlands and 
in the 50s to lower 60s for the highest terrain. Upper level 
ridging begins to move into the area by the end of the period, 
assisting with keeping the dry and fair weather in place over 
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 PM Saturday...

No major changes noted to the forecast. Broad sfc high pressure 
should shift east over New England, continuing its influence over 
the local area resulting in fair weather. At H500, models suggest a 
ridging will try to form on Monday, but it appears to be short 
lived. Model soundings indicate very dry column, acting to prevent 
any precipitation through the period. 

H850 temperatures will be around 6C, together with clear skies and 
dry airmass in place, radiational cooling could drop temperatures 
into the mid to lower 30s across our northeast mountains Sunday and 
Monday nights. These conditions could produce areas of frost which 
will require Frost advisories for these sections. Overall, 
temperatures will stay few degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 208 PM Saturday...

A strong sfc high pressure and weak ridging at H500 will build 
overhead by mid week. This pattern will keep weather conditions cool 
and dry with high temperatures around or below normal, generally 
around 71 degrees lowlands Monday, with a gradual warming towards 
the end of the week. Lows will range from the mid to lower 40s 
lowlands, to the mid 30s highest elevations Sunday and Monday 
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions should persist through the period for most sites.
The only exception would be if valley fog forms and reaches any
of the sites. Have a brief period of BR at both CRW and EKN
tonight while keeping visibilities out of the MVFR range. However
if more fog forms than forecast, conditions could fall to MVFR 
or IFR. Any fog that does affect the terminals should dissipate 
Sunday morning, giving way to VFR conditions for the day. Winds 
start the period from the northeast at around 5-10KTs and should
become relatively light tonight. Easterly/northeasterly winds 
will pick up again on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog may or may not form and affect 
sites tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR river valley fog possible late Sunday night into Monday 
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...CG