002 
FXUS62 KMLB 101928
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
328 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Stout, deep layer easterly flow has helped 
convection rapidly push across east central Florida today with 
highest coverage now pushing into the western side of the FL 
peninsula. Still, with some heating and lingering boundaries, 
additional scattered showers and isolated storms will remain 
possible across the interior as well as some shower activity pushing 
in from the Atlantic across the coastal counties. Will continue 30-
40% into this evening inland and 20-30% along the coast with main 
threats being heavy downpours, brief gusty winds, and occasional 
lightning strikes.

Activity will wane by sunset across the interior, but isolated to 
scattered showers will continue to develop over the Atlantic with 
strong enough easterly flow to bring some onshore this evening and 
overnight.  Have PoPs 20-30% for the coastal counties with some 
showers possibly reaching eastern portions of Seminole, Orange, 
Osceola, and Okeechobee counties. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 
70s.

Friday-Saturday (previous)...Mid/upper trough will drift westward
into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday as ridge aloft over the 
Atlantic slides west towards the Carolina coast. At the surface, 
the ridge axis will drop slightly southward, with northeasterly 
flow becoming more onshore by late in the day. Moisture across the
region remains high for Sept, with forecast PW nearing 2.00". 
This will keep PoPs trending towards likely across the interior, 
with numerous showers and lightning storms expected in the 
afternoon along the development of the east coast sea breeze. On 
Saturday, a disturbance emerging from the Caribbean will shift 
across the Keys/South FL into the GOMEX leading to higher rainfall
potential for the FL west coast to begin the weekend, however a 
swath of dry air will cross the Atlantic and approach the eastern 
FL coast early in the day. With PW dropping to 1.75", rain chances
on Saturday will be a tad lower than previous days, still 
favoring the interior but dropping to 50-60%. 

High temperatures to end the week will continue to run near to 
slightly above normal in the upper 80s/lower 90s, and lows in the 
mid 70s.

Sunday-Thursday (previous)...The previously mentioned swath of dry 
air across the western Atlantic will continue to press westward, 
engulfing most of the Peninsula as TS Paulette drifts to the 
northwest, remaining well offshore and no threat to US. Drying mid-
levels will lower available moisture, dropping PW below 1.50" (below 
climo average) and thus limiting rain chances to 50%. Deep onshore 
flow will still favor storm development across the interior through 
mid week, with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain 
expected. Temperatures through midweek will hold steady near 
seasonal values, with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows in the 
low/mid 70s.

While tropical systems Paulette and Rene pose no direct threat to 
the local area, residents are reminded that September 10th is the 
climatological peak of hurricane season, with most storms occurring 
from mid August to mid October. Now is the time to create and/or 
review your personal preparedness plan and restock your hurricane 
kit before any storm threatens the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Early day activity has mostly transitioned to the western half of 
the peninsula this mid afternoon. Isolated showers and a storm or 
two will continue moving across the area. These could result in 
brief VISBY reductions if one passes over a terminal. Otherwise, VFR 
conditions prevail. Activity diminishes inland tonight, as isolated 
showers possible along the coast so kept VCSH through the period for 
coastal terminals. 

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Wave models continue to advertise seas higher than what is 
being observed on the local buoys.  So again the forecast caps seas 
at 2 ft nearshore and 3 ft in the offshore waters. Scattered showers 
and a few storms will be possible with east to northeast winds 
around 10-12 kt. 

Friday-Saturday (previous)...Generally good boating conditions will 
end this week as surface high maintains position over the central 
Atlantic. A few disturbances will move across south FL into the Gulf 
of Mexico, but will only increase rain chances slightly, with no 
direct affect to the local Atlantic waters. On Friday, NE winds will 
become east at 5-10 kts, veering SE by late Saturday with seas 
mainly 2-3 ft, building up to 4-5 ft as TS Paulette moves NW over 
the open western Atlantic.

Sat. Night-Tuesday (modified previous)...Boating conditions will 
become more unfavorable late Saturday and into Sunday as TS 
Paulette sends a swell across the local waters. Seas will build 
4-5 ft in the nearshore waters and possibly reaching 7 ft offshore
on Sunday, with these conditions continuing through early next 
week. Onshore flow will remain steady at 5-10 kts, with a brief 
increase each afternoon with the development of the sea breeze 
circulation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  88  78  89 /  30  50  30  50 
MCO  77  90  77  91 /  10  70  20  60 
MLB  78  89  79  88 /  30  50  30  50 
VRB  78  89  77  89 /  30  50  30  50 
LEE  76  92  77  91 /  20  70  20  60 
SFB  77  90  76  91 /  10  60  20  60 
ORL  77  91  77  90 /  10  70  20  60 
FPR  78  89  78  89 /  30  50  30  50 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Combs
RADAR/IMPACT WX....Sedlock 
AVIATION...Rodriguez