687 
FXUS62 KJAX 301904
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
304 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fairly strong mid level disturbance is pushing through our area 
at this time and should be off the coast by around 12Z taking most
of the mid-upper jet level dynamics with it. We continue to see, 
however, an unsettled weather pattern with broad southwest to west
low level flow south of a sfc trough axis over GA, and elevated 
PWATs that are in excess of 2 inches. GFS shows enhanced upper 
level divergence areas today and this combined with pockets of 
heating and forcing aloft slowly pushing in from the west suggest 
high rain chances once again. 

Low level convergence located primarily over northeast FL will 
once again support scattered to numerous showers and potential 
storms in the morning and early aftn. Heavy rainfall is the main 
threat along with strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Will
include heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the forecast for 
portions of northeast FL mainly from Alachua county southward. 
Given the early start to the convection over northeast FL, expect 
some decrease in the coverage after about 3PM-4PM, but then ramp 
up more so over southeast GA where the airmass will not be worked
over yet. Best coverage today will be over northeast FL with POPs
up to categorical (~80%+) and chance to likely over southeast GA 
(40-60%). Highs today will again be held down by precip and 
considerable clouds from the mid 80s to near 90.

Tonight, isolated to scattered convection is expected and the 
focus for most convection will be toward the inland northeast FL 
zones (mainly I-75 corridor areas) as the southwest-west flow 
pattern continues to support some precip moving in off the Gulf of
Mexico late tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Unsettled pattern will continue through Monday night as the 
surface trough axis slowly drags across northern FL and weak upper
level disturbances parade across the area aloft. Storms will
mostly fire off along the low level convergence boundary, keeping
the highest chances across north FL. With deep layer 
southwesterly flow in place, PWATs will still be hanging around
the 2-2.4" range, so heavy rainfall potential will continue into 
at least tomorrow evening. Weak high pressure will begin to build 
aloft Monday night into Tuesday, which could potentially work in 
some drier air for Tuesday, but we'll likely still have enough 
residual moisture for scattered storms across the area Tuesday, 
again with the highest chances over north FL. Temperatures will be
moderated by cloud and storm coverage Monday, peaking in the mid 
80s to low 90s and dipping to the low-mid 70s at night. Tuesday 
afternoon should be warmer, with highs in the low-mid 90s and max 
heat indices approaching 105-110F.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Deep layer ridging is expected to set back up in the western
Atlantic around mid-week, with drier air working its way into the
area. This should lead to decreasing chances for showers and 
thunderstorms as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will trend
above normal, peaking in the low-mid 90s and only lowering to the
mid-upper 70s overnight.


&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

MVFR ceilings around 2000-3000 feet will linger through around 19Z
at SGJ and CRG. Otherwise, VFR ceilings will prevail outside of
scattered thunderstorm activity that will be moving eastward
around 15 knots. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain 
sustained around 10 knots, with winds at the coastal terminals 
shifting to southerly after 20Z. Another round of showers and 
thunderstorms will likely impact our region terminals after 20Z. 
We included TEMPO groups at each terminal during the late 
afternoon and early evening hours for gusty winds and MVFR 
conditions, with brief periods of IFR conditions possible. VFR 
conditions should then prevail after 02Z, with west-southwesterly
surface winds sustained around 5 knots at the regional terminals 
overnight. 

&&

.MARINE...

West winds tonight around 15 to 20 knots over our offshore waters 
will gradually slacken through the morning hours. After that, 
generally light west or southwest winds will prevail through the 
end of the period with daily chances for showers and 
thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: A long period east southeasterly ocean swell will
persist through midweek, keeping a moderate rip current risk in
place at all area beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy showers anticipated through
Monday night, with the highest chances for heavy rain across
north-central FL. Widespread rainfall accumulations are forecast
to be around 1-2" across north FL, 1" or less across southern GA
through tomorrow night, which we should generally be able to
handle. Isolated areas will see higher totals, however, which
could lead to localized flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  90  75  93  75 /  20  70  30  60  10 
SSI  77  90  77  92  78 /  20  50  30  50  10 
JAX  74  91  75  94  76 /  30  70  20  70  10 
SGJ  75  91  75  92  76 /  20  70  30  70  10 
GNV  74  87  74  92  75 /  20  80  30  80  10 
OCF  74  85  75  90  75 /  30  80  30  80  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&