360 
FXUS64 KFWD 240448
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/

North and Central Texas will remain in subsident air on the east
side of a well established ridge currently centered over the four
corners region, resulting in seasonably hot and rain-free weather
through Monday night. 

A light east to southeast surface wind will continue across the 
region as Tropical Storm Marco approaches the coast of Louisiana. 
This surface flow will keep dewpoints mainly in the 60s, except 
for afternoon dewpoints in the 50s across the west. The only 
clouds expected will be some daytime Cu with bases around 7000 ft.

Lows tonight and Monday night will range from the upper 60s to the
middle 70s. Highs Monday will warm into the middle 90s.  

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020/

/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

Hot conditions will prevail through the week. While substantial 
impacts due to a pair of tropical cyclones are expected to remain
low across North/Central TX from Marco and Laura, the additional 
fetch of tropical moisture westward results in rain/storm chances
through a good portion of the work-week for parts of the area. 
While the model consensus continues to gradually improve regarding
the placement of both tropical systems around landfall, there 
continues to be considerable spread among guidance as the 
tropical remnants drift farther inland. 

Rain chances will slowly ramp up Tuesday afternoon as our first 
tropical system (likely Marco) lifts northward. The synoptic 
picture will be characterized by an upper tropospheric trough. It
should extend from the Great Lakes down into South Texas. Most 
models indicate that this feature should remain largely entrenched
across our region and this appears to make sense given the 
swifter flow on the poleward side of the trough axis (compared to 
the equatorial side) based on upper air obs this morning. The 
upper trough should keep Marco's landfall near southeastern 
Louisiana. Marco will weaken rather quickly as it moves inland and
will become ill-defined through the mid-levels. The track of 
Marco becomes challenging because of the aformentioned trough and 
a mid-level ridge across the eastern seaboard. If the upper ridge
builds more, the remains of Marco will likely track a bit farther
to the west (and thus greater rain chances across our East Texas 
counties). A weaker ridge will likely equate to more of a 
northward jog by Marco and lower rain chances for our region. For
now, I'll maintain low PoPs on the 20 to 30 percent range, across
East Texas. Strong winds are not anticipated as the circulation 
and surface pressure field will likely be pretty ill-defined as 
Marco loses its tropical characteristics. It'll be a little cooler
for locations across East Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday thanks 
to a bit more in the way of denser cloud cover. If the 12Z GFS is 
to verify, however, it could be a lot warmer with less cloud cover
and little to no precipitation. 

Through the rest of the work-week, we'll be monitoring the track 
of what should be Hurricane Laura. With the upper trough being 
displaced some to the northwest thanks to a slight nudge from 
Marco, Laura is likely to make more western landfall across the 
Louisiana/Texas coast. This will mean slightly greater 
rain/isolated storm chances for roughly the eastern half of North 
and Central Texas. In addition, the wind field associated with
Laura will probably be a bit more intact, even this far north and
we may need to beef up wind speeds in subsequent forecast
iterations. Of course, if Laura tracks a bit more to the east of 
the current forecast, it's quite possible that most of our region 
will remain precip-free, less breezy, and mostly sunny. For now, 
I'll follow the previous forecast and keep PoPs a little higher 
than Tuesday around the mid-week timeframe. It does look like we 
will remain hot and with the additional fetch of moisture thanks 
to our tropical cyclones, heat index values will likely approach 
or exceed advisory levels. Next weekend appears to remain hot and 
humid with just some lingering rain/storm chances.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR at all TAF sites through Monday night with a mostly clear sky
at night and scattered daytime Cu. 

A light southeast to east wind tonight will become slightly more
east/northeast after sunrise Monday as Tropical Storm Marco nears
the Louisiana coast. Wind speeds will remain generally less than
10 knots but a few higher daytime gusts are possible.  

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  96  75  96  76 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Waco                72  97  73  97  74 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Paris               68  93  70  92  72 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Denton              72  95  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   5  10 
McKinney            71  97  71  96  74 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Dallas              75  97  75  97  77 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Terrell             70  98  71  97  73 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Corsicana           71  95  72  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Temple              72  96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Mineral Wells       69  95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   5  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25