695 
FXUS64 KMOB 022349 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
649 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2020/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Starting off with an
amplified upper level trough axis from the Great Lakes southward
to off the upper Texas coast. A narrow plume of better 
environmental moisture (PWATs ~1.9 inches) is aligned from the 
Appalachians to southeast LA. Considering this along with the 
passage of mid level impulses in the higher level southwest flow, 
just ahead of the mean trough position and afternoon instability, 
forecasters anticipate the development of isolated to perhaps 
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The slightly better coverage 
of which looks to remain generally north and west of I-65, closer 
to where the greatest deep layer moisture and instability resides.
This is supported by the latest high resolution convection 
allowing models. An assessment of convective downburst winds in 
these areas suggest a high potential of brief strong wind gusts in
any of the better defined storms this afternoon. Any storms that 
carry over into the evening are expected to show a diurnal 
decrease in coverage. 

The upper trough migrates slowly eastward with its axis more 
aligned over the MS River Valley Monday. Drier air is forecast to
spread in from west to east. Most areas are likely to remain dry 
on Monday, but cannot rule out an isolated, mainly afternoon 
storm over the eastern zones to the coast as enough moisture may 
linger to support development. 

Little change in lows tonight, ranging in the low to mid 70s 
inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Monday range in the
lower to mid 90s interior to near 90 along the beaches. /10

SHORT TERM /Monday Night Through Wednesday Night/...A broad upper 
level trough extends from southern Ontario down toward the Gulf 
Coast region through mid-week. The local area generally remains at 
the base of the upper level trough through the short term period, 
which will maintain westerly flow aloft. Much drier air spreads into 
the interior portions of the area during this timeframe, denoted by 
PWATs dropping to 1.1-1.3 inches on Tuesday and potentially dropping 
below 1 inch across southeast Mississippi on Wednesday. Moisture 
will be ever-so-slightly higher near the coastline (denoted by PWATs 
of 1.4-1.5 inches) as a weak surface boundary/trough remains 
anchored near the coast or just offshore. There might be enough 
moisture along the coast to squeeze out a few showers and storms as 
the sea breeze pushes inland both afternoons. That said, POPs are 
capped below 20% on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. The 
majority of the area will stay dry through the period.

Afternoon high temperatures will soar into the mid to low 90s both 
days. Dewpoints will mix out into the 60s in the afternoons for most 
locations with low 70s along the immediate coastline. This drier air 
means that the heat index will likely stay below 100° in most spots 
each day. Low temperatures continue to trend slightly cooler on both 
Wednesday and Thursday mornings with upper 60s in the forecast for 
southeast Mississippi and portions of southwest Alabama.

LOW risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday night. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The axis of the broad 
upper level trough begins to slide to the east late in the week as 
an upper level ridge builds east into the Southern Plains. The ridge 
aloft spreads further east toward the region over the weekend as the 
trough lifts off to the northeast, which leaves northerly to 
northwesterly flow aloft over the area. Meanwhile, surface 
ridging spills into the northern Gulf from the western Atlantic 
late in the week through the weekend. Moisture remains relatively 
low on Thursday as the trough aloft lingers overhead before 
lifting to the northeast. Similar to the dry forecast in the short
term, POPs remain low on Thursday with enough moisture to perhaps
squeeze out a few showers and storms along the sea breeze. 
Moisture slowly begins to creep back into the area as the pattern 
begins to change Friday through the weekend. As such, a diurnal 
pattern with scattered showers and storms is expected over the 
weekend - beginning over the Gulf waters early each morning and 
transitioning inland along the sea breeze each afternoon. Of note,
drier air aloft remains evident in forecast soundings next 
weekend, so the risk of wet microbursts will need to be monitored 
as any storms that develop could produce gusty winds.

High temperatures will generally rise into the mid to low 90s inland 
with upper 80s at the beaches each day. A few spots east of I-65 in 
south central Alabama may top out in the upper 90s by the weekend. 
Expect the heat index to increase to 100°-106° on Saturday and 
Sunday as moisture increases and dewpoints unfortunately don't mix 
out quite as much as previous days. 07/mb

MARINE...Only marine impacts this week will be isolated storms which 
can bring brief strong winds, locally higher waves/seas, frequent 
lightning and brief reductions to visibility in heavier rains. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob