524 
FXUS64 KSJT 281013
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
513 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Mainly Dry and Hot...

Aside from a small chance of showers and thunderstorms, the
highlight of the short term is hot afternoon highs. Models have
been consistently under forecasting afternoon highs; Abilene and
San Angelo highs yesterday were 98 and 100, respectively. 
Forecast highs for yesterday were 94, for both locations. So, 
afternoon highs today close to persistence look better than model 
numbers, which still look too low. With some persistent convection
to our north, the best rain chances, for the next 24 hours, looks
to be over our northeastern counties, this afternoon. 
Nevertheless, PoP numbers no higher than around 30 percent look 
best, mainly because of low confidence.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

...Highs Above Normal with Possible Rain...

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. As with the
short term, models forecast highs look too low, and that
assessment is based mainly on past performance. As for rain 
chances, the NBM PoP numbers looked reasonable this cycle. Just a 
slight adjustment to them, to make them blend better with 
neighboring offices, was the only deviation necessary to produce a
nearly seamless rain forecast, for West Central Texas; 
nevertheless, low confidence warrants no higher than 20 percent 
chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 98  76  97  73 /  30  10  10   5 
San Angelo 	100  76 100  73 /  10   5   5   0 
Junction 	 98  74  98  73 /  20  10   5   0 
Brownwood 	 96  74  98  73 /  30  10  10   5 
Sweetwater 	 98  75  99  74 /  20  10   5   5 
Ozona      	100  73  96  72 /   5   5   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$