214 
FXUS63 KIND 230712
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
312 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM sections have been 
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

A front will bring chances for rain to central Indiana today, but
then high pressure will provide a break from rain chances into the
weekend. A cold front will bring more chances for rain next week.
Temperatures will be from near normal to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Early this morning, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms were
across central Indiana, as a cold front moves very slowly south.

The front will continue to slowly sink south through the day
today. Only some weak upper support will be with it. Best chances
for storms will be ahead of the front in the afternoon when
instability is highest. Based upon the front's expected movement,
that should be across the southeastern third or so of the area.

Thus will go dry in the far northwest, then have slight chance to
chance category PoPs elsewhere today. 

Mostly cloudy skies will become partly cloudy today. The NBM's
highs look reasonable for the most part given expected conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models
initialization was accepted for most items.

Expect any convection to die off or be south of the area by the
start of the tonight period, so will go dry tonight.  

A weak inverted trough will be just northeast of the area on
Friday, and there will be a temperature gradient aloft at 850mb.
However, don't expect any convection to develop with these
features (the GFS is alone in generating QPF Friday). Will have
partly cloudy skies though.

High pressure should then build in and provide dry conditions. 
Temperatures on Saturday will be warmer as the upper ridge begins 
building back in.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Hot and dry conditions are expected for the early portion of the 
long term period with temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices
approaching 100 through Sunday. The upper level ridge that is 
expected to be in place for much of the latter half of the week 
will break down late this weekend into early next week with an 
upper level wave moving through early next week. This wave will 
bring the forcing necessary for widespread rain across the area 
Monday into Tuesday with a stationary front lingering in the area 
into Wednesday. With that in mind, plan on ramping up POPs Monday 
into Tuesday with smaller POPs on Wednesday to account for 
uncertainty on where the front settles.

Temperatures will begin the period above average before cooling to
closer to average by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1151 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Isolated showers will continue for the next few hours, but should
diminish shortly after the start of the TAF period. VFR conditions
are expected to deteriorate to MVFR, possibly lower, over the 
early morning hours due to plentiful low level moisture. These 
ceilings are not expected to return to VFR at most sites until
after sunrise. Slight rain chances continue tomorrow across our 
south. Winds will range from light and variable to out of the W to
SW at around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....White
AVIATION...KH