592 
FXUS64 KHUN 210345
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1045 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

A few lingering showers/tstms continue around the cntrl TN Valley
this late Mon evening, as an upper ridge axis in place over much of
the region continues to gradually weaken. This activity should
continue to diminish over the next couple of hrs with the loss of
latent heating, as overnight temps fall into the lower/mid 70s for 
most spots. Some light patchy fog is possible going into the early
morning hrs, mainly in the sheltered/valley locations. But the prob
is not high enough to include in the forecast at this point.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Mid level ridging will weaken on Tuesday, as a weak trough moves into
the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley. This trough will quickly swing 
through the Ohio Valley, with the weakness in the ridge allowing for 
a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday, with even more 
moisture over the area. Although blended guidance suggests PoPs 
around 60%, am not overly confident on that coverage given the lack 
of large scale forcing. However, there could be enough lingering 
mesoscale boundaries to initiate numerous thunderstorms during the 
afternoon. Isolated strong storms are possible both days, with gusty 
winds up to 40 mph being the main hazard. 

Temperatures through the short term period will be a couple of
degrees lower than what we've experienced as the coverage of storms 
is greater. Expect highs to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s, 
with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Heat index values will approach
the triple digits each afternoon, but will stay below 105 degrees. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

An active pattern is expected to persist into the upcoming weekend 
as the TN Valley remains on the eastern periphery of a building ridge
over the Plains. Moisture will remain relatively high over the area,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s persisting through the 
period. Forecast guidance continues to hint at a weak boundary moving
through the area late in the week, however the proximity of the 
building ridge and the extremely moist airmass currently in place 
will make it hard for this boundary to make it all the way through 
the area. With that said, will maintain numerous thunderstorms in the
forecast for Thursday and Friday, mainly across our eastern areas, 
closer to the boundary. Rain chances lessen over the weekend as the 
ridge moves further to the east. Temps through the period will remain
near seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows 
in the upper 60s/lower 70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

The last few shra/tsra have just about ended around the area this
late Mon evening, with VFR conds generally xpcted into the daytime 
hrs Tue. Some -br is possible early Tue morning, although the prob is
not high enough to include in the TAF attm. Sct shra/tsra are also
possible Tue afternoon and a PROB30 group has been maintained during
the 19-23Z time period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...09


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