493 
FXUS62 KCHS 171738
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
138 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes were made with the latest update. Deep high
pressure will prevail today with a continuation of similar
weather as the past few days. The sea breeze is beginning to
make some inland progression and this could spark a few
showers/thunderstorms as it moves inland. Temperatures should
peak in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast with heat
indices peaking about 100 to 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight: Any lingering convection should dissipate near or just
after sunset across far interior Southeast Georgia. Warm and
muggy conditions will persist with lows in the lower-mid 70s
inland with near 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

Saturday through Monday: High confidence this period. Mid-level
high pressure will prevail over the Southeast while surface 
high pressure prevails in the Atlantic. There could be weak 
surface troughing each afternoon, but nothing noteworthy within 
this weather pattern. Flow around the high will keep enough 
moisture in place to maintain dew points in the 70s each 
afternoon. High temperatures should be a few degrees above 
normal, generally in the mid to maybe upper 90s away from the 
coast. Though, heat indices should only peak around 105 degrees 
each day. The convective potential is minimal on Saturday. 
Slight chance POPs cover the area, which may be too high for 
most locations. The convective potential increases on Sunday 
with a slightly stronger sea breeze and more instability, 
especially across the Charleston Tri-County. This trend 
continues Monday afternoon. Any convection that manages to 
develop will dissipate in the evening. The overnight period will
remain very mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will prevail over the Southeast through Wednesday, 
with weak troughing passing to our north on Thursday. Meanwhile, 
surface high pressure remains in the Atlantic. The typical summertime
pattern prevails with afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms, 
followed by drier nights and mornings. Temperatures will be near
or a few degrees above normal, especially at night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR, with a very low risk of brief light restrictions 
from showers/thunderstorms through mid afternoon and then fog/stratus
late tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are 
possible from afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: East winds this morning will veer slightly late this 
afternoon as the pure sea breeze circulation develops along the
beaches and moves inland. Some weak enhancement is possible in 
the Charleston Harbor and near the land/sea interface, but 
speeds will generally max out around 10 kt. Seas will average 
1-2 ft.

Tonight: Southeast winds will become south overnight as Atlantic
high pressure holds firm off the New England coast. Speeds will
generally average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Some very isolated
convection could pop over the Georgia offshore waters near the
west wall of the Gulf Stream. Probabilities look too low to
mention at this time. 

Saturday through Tuesday: Exceptionally high confidence this 
period. Atlantic high pressure will prevail, leading to the 
typical summertime pattern with the afternoon sea breeze. Winds 
and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$