986 
FXUS63 KOAX 111117
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A few sprinkles remain across southeast NE this morning at 6 am,
and that may be it for the morning convection. Looking ahead, the 
latest CAM models continue to provide widely varying solutions 
for additional convective development this morning in northeast 
NE, where no clouds even exist at this time. While there are some 
ACCAS clouds across south central SD, really not expecting any 
additional convective development in our area per HRRR/RAP/Nam 
Nest models.

The models do seem to be picking up on a chance of thunderstorms
this afternoon along an advancing surface trough, however, again,
the CAMs are offering differing solutions of exactly where and
when it will develop. We did add some 20-30% Pops to southeast NE
by 19-20z, but will possibly need to make adjustments as we get
closer.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Saturday:

Overnight a strong to severe line of storms developed near south 
central South Dakota and tracked southeast. A few storms produced
wind damage with gusts over 60 mph in Madison, Stanton, and Cuming
counties. This morning, non severe thunderstorms and showers have
continued to spread east into the forecast area. Precipitation is
expected to linger this morning, eventually moving south of the 
area by about 10 am. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the 
remainder of the day with temperatures only slightly cooler after 
the passage of a cold front overnight. Expect highs today to range
from 83 to 87 degrees. 

Sunday through Tuesday:

Sunday will be another dry day as we transition to slight ridging 
through Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s on Sunday and winds 
will swing from northerly to southeasterly during the day. As we 
head into Monday, more zonal flow will settle into the area. Looks 
like this will be the beginning of a period of off an on chances for 
precip through the week as a series of waves ripple through the 
flow. 

There is still some differences in the models for Monday, but 
in general, it appears that a shortwave will swing into the area 
sometime on Monday bringing with it, more chances for showers and 
thunderstorms. Ample moisture and instability will be present, so
severe weather will be possible, particularly in northeast 
Nebraska. Monday will be another hot one, with highs topping out 
in the upper 80s to mid 90s. 

Precipitation from Monday night looks like it may linger into 
Tuesday morning. Looks like there may be some dry time on Tuesday,
but it likely won't last long and another shortwave rolls off the
Rockies on Tuesday. Temperatures may range a bit on Tuesday with 
the northern forecast area topping out in the low 80s with the 
southern part of the area will top out near 90. 

Wednesday and beyond:

Long range models show westerly flow hanging around through the 
end of the week. Expect the wet pattern to continue as shortwaves 
continue to pulse through the upper level flow. For now, it looks 
like much of there area will have at least a small chance for 
showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of the week, 
but details will become clearer in later forecasts. Temperatures 
each day will be in the upper 80s, increasing to the low to mid 
90s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

VFR conditions through the period. Winds become northwest and
increase to 9 to 13 knots by 16-19z, with gusts up to 20 knots
possible at KOFK. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...DeWald