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081 FXUS62 KJAX 100107 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 907 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .UPDATE... Another muggy night with scattered showers and isolated evening storms tracking SSE toward the local Atlantic coast through midnight under deep layer NNW steering flow between a GOMEX ridge and TS Fay drifting north near the NC/VA Atlantic coast. Stable, warm mid levels (500 mb temps further warmed to -3.4 degC, about 4 deg above climo values) limited deep convective growth today with the greatest convective hazard locally heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour in some areas under fairly light steering flow around 10 kts and high PWAT content (still 2.24 inches per the 00z JAX RAOB). After midnight, weak short wave trough energy and low level convergence across our southern FL zones and Apalachee Bay could spark a few showers/isolated tstorm across the Suwannee River Valley through sunrise, otherwise a rogue shower possible but generally expect mostly dry conditions under partly cloudy skies and muggy lows above climo in the mid/upper 70s. The sounding did show intrusion of drier air above 500 mb which will is an indication of a gradually drying airmass moving into the deep south, which will begin to lower daily rain chances into the weekend BUT enable daytime high to rise above climo into the mid/upper 90s. && .MARINE... Prevailing WSW winds 10 kts or less over the waters with combined seas generally less than 3 ft this evening. Winds will become more westerly Fri morning, then winds expected to transition ESE Fri afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Showers and tstorms will continue to press farther offshore this evening, with a return of mainly afternoon and early evening storms Fri afternoon. Rip Currents: Low rip current risk. && .PREV DISCUSSION [741 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Deep layer west-northwest flow continues as a strengthening low (Invest 98L) moves north-northeastward up the mid-Atlantic coast with its associated trough extending south across the region and high pressure remaining over the central Gulf of Mexico. Weak shortwaves moving through the area combined with diurnal heating will keep elevated rain chances this afternoon. Generally, storms will be on the weaker side due to weak shear and warm conditions aloft (500 mb temps around -5 C). A few stronger storms may be possible in late afternoon/early evening hours mainly east of I-95 where collisions with the pinned sea breeze along the coast could cause storms to produce winds up to 40 mph and excessive lightning. The main hazard with these storms will be the potential for minor flooding due to locally heavy, training rainfall. Coverage of showers diminishes with sunset with the loss of instability and the shortwaves moving off to the east. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Northwest flow continues over the region with high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico and troughing over the eastern CONUS. The stalled frontal boundary trailing the departing surface low (Invest 98L) will move south out of the region. This boundary will bring weak shortwave energy and provide some forcing for ascent into Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop each day. Drier air filters in from the northwest on Saturday leading to slightly less storm coverage but an increase in the potential for strong wind gusts due to downbursts with DCAPE values increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Temperatures will also be above average with highs in the low to mid 90s with heat indices potentially reaching in the 105 - 110 F range. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]... Mid/upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS with ridging over the southwest CONUS continues into Tuesday. Another weakening frontal boundary moves through Sunday night into Monday bringing another batch of drier air to the region. Scattered showers and storms will develop each day. The drier air aloft will raise the potential for strong downburst wind gusts over the area. By mid- week, mid to upper level ridging over the southwest CONUS moves eastward into the southeast bringing an end to unsettled weather and a return to seabreeze driven convection. Highs will be above average in the low to mid 90s. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] Scattered showers and tstorms will bring restriction potential to all locations through 03-04z, with the best potential across NE FL terminals. Convection will generally weaken and decrease in coverage through midnight. Steamy overnight conditions with prevailing VFR at most terminals expected, although, based on persistence included MVFR at VQQ. Potential low stratus after sunrise could cause another SCT-BKN MVFR low stratus deck temporarily as low level moisture lifts. Westerly winds will prevail outside of convection through Fri morning, then afternoon east coast sea breeze is expected to develop at the coast transitioning winds to onshore as convection begins to develop once again near inland terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 93 75 95 73 / 40 60 20 60 10 SSI 76 92 78 92 77 / 40 50 10 50 20 JAX 74 94 76 96 75 / 70 60 20 70 20 SGJ 75 92 76 92 75 / 60 60 20 70 20 GNV 75 91 75 93 74 / 50 70 40 80 20 OCF 76 90 75 92 75 / 30 70 40 80 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&