901 
FXUS64 KLZK 030217
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
917 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Data from local radars continue to indicate several areas of 
convection, drifting across the forecast area. Areas that have not
convectively overturned this evening still has large amounts of 
energy to fuel thunderstorms, as ML CAPE values of over 3000 j/kg 
are indicated across portions of southwest through northeast 
sections of the state. Expect a very slow decrease in convective 
coverage through the early morning hours. 

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020)
AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect ongoing convection, with an
expected diurnal reflection on areal coverage. Expect scattered
areas of 4000-6000 ft ceilings to affect sites during the second
half of the valid forecast period.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Seasonal highly moist airmass to remain across the forecast area 
through the period while a strong upper ridge over the central 
Plains begins to weaken and move west. While the weakening high 
pressure will bring somewhat lower daytime highs the next couple of 
days and get us away from the heat advisory headlines, it will also 
allow for more widespread development of afternoon/evening 
thunderstorms through the first half of the holiday weekend. Given 
the high moisture content of the atmosphere, some storms could give 
a quick inch or more of rainfall in a short amount of time. Will see 
a cooling trend the next couple days with highs Friday afternoon 
ranging from the mid 80s over the northern higher terrain with lower 
90s across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Highs on 
Saturday will range from the lower 80s over the northern higher 
terrain to around 90 over the far south.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain quasi-stationary 
across the midsection of the country thru the period, although there 
will be some variability in the strength of the ridge over time. 
Overall, Arkansas will remain just to the east of the ridge axis, 
remaining under a northwesterly to the occasional meridional flow 
pattern. 

A number of shortwaves will traverse the ridge with little 
consequence, and will emerge on the eastern side to kick up some 
convective activity. The flow pattern will be conducive to the 
development of MCS activity across the Plains at times, and remnant 
boundaries and convection could certainly influence POPs in 
unforeseen ways this far out. 

Overall most convection will be diurnally driven thru the period, 
but may occasionally become a bit more widespread or intense due to 
the above mentioned disturbances and/or remnant MCS activity. My 
confidence in POPs and the timing at this range is fairly low, and 
it's probably safe to assume that most days during the extended term 
will see some kind of precip activity across the state.

Despite the presence of the ridge, convection, cloud cover, and 
outflow boundaries should keep daytime max temperatures from getting 
out of hand.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99