372 
FXUS63 KIND 021704
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
104 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Dry and warm weather is expected through Saturday morning as high
pressure locked in place over Wisconsin will provide a dry 
northeasterly flow of air to Central Indiana. Some showers and
storms will be possible on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. 

More thunderstorms are possible early next week as the high 
pressure system begins to break down by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 947 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Sunny start to the morning under light easterly flow. 1330Z 
temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

Ridging has developed across central Indiana and as the day
progresses...drier air and increased subsidence will build in
courtesy of the E/NE flow through the lower levels. The boundary
that has been in the area the last few days has been pushed off to
the southwest with no threat for convection expected as a mid 
level cap becomes well established.

Low level thermals and slightly drier dewpoints along with full
sun should enable most if not all of the forecast area to make it
to 90 degrees this afternoon. Bumped up highs a degree or two in
most locations. 

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern through
Saturday. The models continue to suggest strong ridging in place
aloft through the Great Lakes...keeping Indiana within a
subsidence area along with with dry NE winds. Time heights
through Saturday show a very dry column with subsidence. The
strong cap with 700mb temps over 10C continues on Friday afternoon
with limited CAPE. Thus expect weather Tonight through Friday
night to pretty much copies of the previous days as there will be
little change in air mass.

On Saturday and Saturday Night the protective upper ridging begins
to break down and slide farther west. Forecast soundings respond
on Saturday showing a slightly more saturated column with
attainable convective temperatures and pwats surging over 1.4
inches. Furthermore...CAPE of 2000 J/KG is available and the 
strong CAP is now gone. 700MB temps on Saturday look to fall to 
8c...allowing for deep convection. The upper flow across Indiana 
also look broadly diffluent but little in the wave of short wave 
look to pass within the flow. Thus some small chances for 
afternoon and evening showers/storms will be needed given the set 
up. Again...not a rain out on Saturday by any means...with many 
dry hours through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the long term with
highs in the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat
indices may become an issue mid week next week. Winds will be 
mostly light and variable, which will not make the muggy 
conditions feel any better.

Models become increasingly messy as the period goes on as there
is still not much synoptic movement in the extended. In general
though, a fairly stationary ridge, extending from the desert SW to
the Great Lakes region, will persist into the start of the long
term. Then ridge then looks to flatten as we get into next week,
which should allow for better chances of afternoon convection,
especially with the heat and humidity in place. The GFS continues
to be more robust with greater rain coverage and occurrence for 
the area, but from Tuesday on, there is a consensus for better 
PoPs between models. Did not differ much from guidance. 

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 021800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

VFR through the period. Few to scattered cu through this evening
with bases around 5000 ft at issuance time rising through the 
afternoon. Some cirrus overnight and with drier air advecting in
from the northeast and a full day of sunshine do not expect any 
fog formation. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 kts expected today 
with an isolated gust to 20 kts possible, decreasing in speed 
overnight and picking back up by midmorning Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....KH
AVIATION...CP