395 
FXUS65 KPIH 232038
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
238 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Expect continued warmer 
temperatures and overall clear skies and light winds under broad 
upper level high pressure ridging today. 

The upper level high pressure ridging then moves east of our area
by Wednesday bringing a breezy southwest flow as well as slightly
warmer temperatures and a slight chance of showers and 
thunderstorms, especially for our western and northern areas. The 
Storm Prediction Center has our area in a outlook for isolated, 
severe thunderstorms across our northern areas on Wednesday. Very 
dry air is in place. Thunderstorms will have a hard time 
developing due to lack of instability. However, those 
thunderstorms that do develop will have a good potential to mix 
down upper level winds. Outflow winds of 40 to 55 mph are 
possible across our southwest areas as well northern areas to 
include the Central mountains/Big Lost range and the Montana 
divide. Thursday look for more widespread showers and 
thunderstorms, especially for our northern and eastern areas, 
behind a cold front that will move through late Wednesday night 
into Thursday. 

Temperatures will rise to about 4 to 8 degrees above normal on 
Wednesday. Then, expect temperatures to drop about 4 to 8 degrees 
below normal by Thursday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Monday. Early Friday morning 
models continue to show lingering light showers across our eastern
areas as weak high pressure ridging builds in from the west. The 
high pressure ridging quickly breaks down and exits as a breezy 
trough drops down across our northern areas on Saturday afternoon.

Models then continue to show an upper level low to drop down and
bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms for Sunday 
afternoon into Monday. Temperatures will start around normal on 
Friday and Saturday before dropping 15 to 20 degrees below normal 
on Sunday and Monday. Though it is early, snow levels could drop 
to around 7500 feet or even slightly lower, especially for our
northern areas. Also expect breezy to moderate winds Sunday and,
to a lesser extent, Monday. 
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...Expect continued VFR conditions and overall light 
winds today under upper level high pressure ridging. By Wednesday 
expect breezy southwest flow and a chance of late afternoon and
evening vicinity showers and thunderstorms mainly for our western
areas (KSUN/KBYI). Gusty outflows of 40 to 55 mph are possible. 
By Thursday expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms 
briefly impacting all TAF sites. 
Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...We are expecting showers and some thunderstorms 
to develop later Wednesday afternoon across the higher elevations,
with the bulk of it over the central mountains east along the 
Montana border to Island Park. We will gradually rain showers 
expanding across all of eastern Idaho tomorrow night and Thursday.
The initial round of storms will produce light rain and gusty 
winds, but we will transition to better rainfall potential as the 
low moves through along with the cold front. The best chance of 
seeing widespread wetting rains will be in the central mountains 
and Zone 411. Winds with the cold front Thursday aren't expecting 
to be terribly strong it appears now. We get a break Friday and 
Saturday before the next low beings to impact the state. While we 
could showers developing as early as Sunday morning, the better 
chance of precipitation will be Sunday evening onward. Depending 
on the track of the low, we could see plenty of rain and high 
mountain snow across the region. 
Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$