561 
FXUS62 KMLB 231332
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Continued Warm & Humid with Heat Indices 100 to 106F Today...
...Scattered to Numerous Storms Today, a Few Possibly Severe...

Current-Tonight...The low-level Atlantic ridge axis will reside over 
south FL for the next 24 hours. Morning KXMR sounding came in with a 
PWAT of 1.81 inches and a cool 500 mb temp of -8.4C. The 915 MHZ 
Cape wind profilers continue to show a deep SW/WSW flow (10-15 kts) 
above the surface through 10.0 Kft. Average PWATs areawide today 
will be higher overall between 1.70-2.00 inches. Mesoscale models 
show a more active WCSB today with possible earlier initiation early 
to mid afternoon north of I-4. The ECSB will also be active with 
initial convection from it along/or just inland of the Treasure 
Coast. The ECSB may be pinned along the coast across much of Volusia 
County or show little movement inland due to the more 
rapid/aggressive nature of the WCSB this afternoon. Late day/evening 
sea breeze/mesoscale outflow boundary collisions should allow for 
SCT-NMRS (40-60pct) coverage. ECFL has again been placed under a 
Marginal threat for severe weather by the Storms Prediction Center. 
As a whole, it appears that showers/storms should see an overall 
earlier start with westerly storm motion (10-15 mph) steering 
activity across the eastern peninsula late this afternoon and early 
evening. Evening convection will likely favor Brevard-Osceola 
southward to across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Storm 
impacts include torrential downpours leading to ponding of water on 
roadways with some nuisance minor flooding possible, frequent cloud 
to ground lightning, downburst winds of 45 to 55 mph locally, and 
perhaps isolated coin-size hail. An isolated severe storm or two 
with winds to 60 mph and quarter-size hail cannot be ruled out.

Light SWRLY morning surface winds becoming onshore near the coast 
with sea breeze formation and slow penetration inland. Very warm 
temperatures forecast again today in the upper 80s to around 90 for 
the immediate coast and climbing into the L-M90s inland. Coastal 
sites, too, could see L90s if the sea breeze here is delayed. Heat 
indices will approach 100 to 106F across most of ECFL during the 
afternoon ahead of the sea breeze and afternoon/early evening storms.

Activity will diminish through this evening with warm and muggy 
conditions as eventual low temps fall into the U60s to M70s across 
ECFL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail outside of 
afternoon/evening convection. Light SWRLY winds this morning will 
gradually veer onshore along the coast but could be delayed a bit 
with the slightly stronger opposing westerly flow today. The WCSB is 
forecast to be stronger/more active than recent days with ISOLD-SCT 
convection from it possible across the I-4 corridor by early-mid 
aftn. Initiation (ISOLD shra/tsra) along the ECSB over the Treasure 
Coast may also occur from early-mid aftn. Should be an earlier start 
and finish across the Orlando Metro today with the majority of 
evening convection from near KMLB-KISM southward. A few storms could 
be strong to severe. We have in our current TAF package "Vicinity" 
wording and tempo groups for later today and will monitor/update 
accordingly. MVFR/IFR in/around convection. Storm motion remains W 
to E at 10-15 kts. 

&&

.MARINE...Today-tonight...The Atlantic ridge axis is across south 
FL. Favorable small craft boating conditions outside of afternoon 
and evening showers/storms. Seas around 2 ft near shore and 3 ft 
well offshore. Light offshore winds will become onshore with 
afternoon sea breeze formation. ISOLD aftn storms forecast near the 
coast with sea breeze formation. Activity could approach the Volusia 
coast by early/mid aftn, then spreading southward to the Space Coast 
late afternoon and the Treasure Coast between late aftn/early 
evening. Some storms could be strong to severe as they push 
offshore. 

Inland lakes are not immune from the effects of strong storms and 
hazardous boating conditions can quickly develop over lakes with 
gusty winds and frequent lightning. Be prepared to seek safe harbor 
well before a storm approaches your area. Winds/seas locally higher 
invof storms.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Sedlock/Leahy