857 
FXUS63 KOAX 192031
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
331 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.Summary: 

A stormy weather pattern will continue into Monday with the best 
chance of severe storms and flooding being on Sunday afternoon 
into Sunday night. With the exception of Sunday, daytime 
temperatures will largely be below normal into the middle of the 
upcoming week. 

.Tonight and Saturday:

A shortwave trough over central portions of WY/CO will track east
tonight and eventually move through the mid MO Valley on Saturday.
In the low levels, surface ridging from the Dakotas into NE will 
concurrently build east ahead of a weak surface low which is 
forecast to develop from northeast KS through portions of eastern 
NE and southwest IA on Saturday.

Subsidence on the backside of a recently decayed MCS over KS, and
ahead of the above-mentioned central Rockies disturbance has
contributed to a relative minimum in convection across our area so
far this afternoon, and that trend should generally hold through
the evening into tonight. By late tonight into Saturday morning,
increased forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching mid-
level system will foster scattered showers and thunderstorms which
will overspread the area from west to east. Current indications
are that the highest precipitation amounts will fall to the north
of the excessive rainfall which occurred yesterday afternoon and 
last night over portions of Saline, Jefferson, and Gage counties.

The extent to which clouds and precipitation linger into the
afternoon on Saturday will have implications on afternoon highs 
with the warmest temperatures (e.g., around 80) expected over our 
northwest counties, and along the NE-KS border.

.Saturday night:

A secondary, weaker mid-level disturbance will move through SD 
and northern NE on Saturday afternoon, contributing to widely 
scattered storms to our west/northwest along an associated 
surface wind shift. While the greatest severe-weather potential is
expected to remain to our west, a strong storm or two can't be 
ruled out over portions of northeast NE on Saturday evening.

.Sunday and Sunday night:

Another shortwave trough is forecast to translate from the
northern High Plains through the mid MO Valley in tandem with a
surface cold front. That front is expected to move into eastern 
NE during the time of peak heating and be the focus for vigorous 
thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings within the warm 
sector indicate a moderate to strongly unstable air mass, co- 
located with a gradually strengthening deep-layer wind field. That
environment would support initial multi- and supercell storm modes
with an attendant threat for large hail and possibly a tornado or
two. Thereafter, individual storms will likely coalesce into an 
MCS with predominant hazards transitioning to damaging wind and 
potential flooding.

Highs on Sunday will be warmer; in the mid to upper 80s.

.Monday into Friday:

Mid-level troughing is forecast to persist from Ontario into the
Midwest through the first half of the upcoming work week. That
will support near to below-normal temperatures with the best
precipitation chances on Monday into Monday night.

It appears temperatures will trend warmer later next week ahead of
another trough evolving over western Canada into the northwestern
U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

While isolated showers could develop this afternoon into evening,
it appears better shower and thunderstorm potential will not
materialize until late tonight into Saturday morning with the
arrival of a vorticity maximum currently over central WY. VFR
conditions should generally prevail through tonight with an
increasing probability for MVFR ceilings by about 12z Saturday.
Northeast winds should persist at less than 10 kt.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead