724 
FXUS62 KJAX 150005
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
805 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.UPDATE...

Slight increase in POPs tonight to account for some lingering 
showers moving into our southeast Georgia zones from the 
northeast. Otherwise, there were no significant changes during the
evening update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [732 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak low level trough is oriented off the SC coast southwest into
the our coastal waters and into north central FL area. Weak
convergence and daytime heating continues to generate isolated
to scattered showers and a few storms over northeast FL, with 
activity remaining low topped and fairly weak. Drier air and
subsidence over southeast GA will keep them most dry through
tonight. Additional isolated to scattered showers are expected 
through tonight but mostly confined to the area waters as diurnal
instability weakens for inland zones. Some low stratus clouds and
patches of light fog possible late tonight, mainly over the nrn 
zones. Breezy winds along the coast will lighten tonight and then 
shift to northerly to slightly northwest. Lows below normal in the
mid- upper 60s north and central zones...and upper 60s to around 
70 elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...

Weak sfc trough located over or just east of the offshore coastal
waters and broad high pressure located well north of the region 
will continue a north to northeast low level flow over the region 
Monday and Tuesday. A mid to upper level low over ern TN/wrn NC 
will slowly drop southeast Mon-Tue, which will enhance the trough 
and likely develop a weak 1016 mb non-tropical low pressure some 
130 miles east-northeast of Jacksonville. 

For Monday, a vort lobe rotating around the mid/upper level low 
and just enough moisture (PWATs only ~1.1 to 1.4 inches) will 
enhance 20-30 percent chances for some showers and storms over the
region. Best chances will be along the east coast sea breeze. 
Tuesday, overall looks like slightly lower rain chances as some 
drier air filters into the region. Will probably limit POPs to 
about 15-25 percent. By Wednesday, the sfc trough and low pressure
will be further away from the region, while sfc high pressure 
builds a bit more north of the area. Broad troughing aloft and 
lower PWATS suggests POPs will be even lower to about 10-15 
percent, and any deep convection probably to form on mesoscale 
boundaries (i.e., sea breezes). Temps will be near or below
normal.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Mid/upper level low centered over NC area will slowly lift northeast
through the rest of the week. This will allow mid level ridge to 
build back over srn parts of FL and weak sfc ridge to move in over
srn and central FL. Moisture is still limited over the region
Thursday through Sunday, with chances of showers and storms
looking to be below normal at about 15-25 percent...so slightly 
below normal. Temps near or below normal Thu will begin to trend
upwards Fri-Sun.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

Breezy northeasterly winds subside this evening. Low level winds
will shift to northerly after 06Z, with calm winds expected at
inland locations after 02Z. IFR ceilings may develop at the
regional terminals after 07Z, with reduced visibilities possible
at GNV and VQQ due to patchy fog. Ceilings and visibilities lift
after sunrise. Breezy coastal winds develop again tomorrow
afternoon with the Atlantic coast sea breeze and northeasterly
onshore flow. Isolated showers develop along the afternoon sea
breeze mainly affecting coastal sites.


.MARINE...

Breezy northeast winds continue into the evening and should gradually
trend a bit down tonight and then shift to the north and then 
northwest at times by early Monday. Caution level winds may 
develop again Monday and Tuesday as the trough of low pressure 
gets better organized and a weak non-tropical low pressure forms 
Tue- Wed, then lifts northeast. Weaker pressure gradient should 
re- develop later in the week resulting in light winds and lower 
seas. We have had a report of waterspout today over the waters and
may see a similar situation for Monday morning. Otherwise, expect
scattered to briefly numerous showers and a few storms through 
Tuesday over the area coastal waters.


.HYDROLOGY...

The St. Mary's River near Macclenny in Baker County has crested in
a moderate flood, with levels forecast to fall back to minor flood
status Monday. The North Fork of the Black Creek warning was cancelled
as it fell below flood stage today. A warning is in effect for 
the Suwanee River at White Springs is the water levels are trending
upwards still...going to minor flood this evening/tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  85  64  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  10 
SSI  71  83  68  80  67 /  20  30  30  30  20 
JAX  67  85  67  83  66 /  10  30  20  30  10 
SGJ  70  83  69  82  68 /  20  30  20  20  10 
GNV  67  88  66  86  65 /  10  20  10  20   0 
OCF  68  88  67  87  66 /  10  20  10  20  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&