243 
FXUS64 KFWD 050105
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
805 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Overview: Showers/storms will be possible for North Texas tonight
as a dying complex moves into the region. Oppressive heat is
anticipated on Friday.

A complex of storms is expected to approach the region from the 
northwest tonight, taking a turn to the south as it enters the 
CWA. It will largely be on a weakening trend, but some gusty 
outflow winds may be possible. Additionally, there is considerable
uncertainty in the southward progress of the dying system. Both 
instability and bulk shear values indicate MCS maintenance would 
be possible in a less-capped environment. However, convective 
inhibition will be a major contender as stable conditions settle 
in with the loss of daytime heating. How quickly ongoing 
convection manages to come to a halt is the main detail in 
question. Afternoon high-res guidance suggests a few 
showers/storms may be able to make it into the Metroplex, but it's
unlikely that these storms will make it much further south than a
Comanche to Waxahachie line. Nonetheless, storms should 
completely come to an end between 2-4 AM tonight. 

Another humid, summer-like morning is in store with low 
temperatures in the 70s. Friday is expected to remain rain-free as
high pressure builds back into the region. This will make way for
hot temperatures and clearing skies Friday afternoon. Heat index 
values over 100 degrees (even up to 104) will be possible as 
humidity remains high. Be sure to practice heat safety if you 
plan on spending time outdoors! 

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/
/Friday Night Onward/

Only minor changes from the previous forecast needed. A prolonged
period of warmer than average temperatures will continue to be 
advertised as strong mid level ridging takes residence over the 
Southern Plains through the weekend. A brief and very limited 
reprieve from the heat is possible for our far eastern counties as
the tropical system in the Gulf is expected to move onshore early
next week and increase rain chances across East Texas. 

Mid level ridging building in across the Southern Plains will keep
the region dry and hot through the weekend. High temperatures will
soar into the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Additionally, shallow 
residual moisture may result in heat indices in excess of 100 
degrees across the region both Saturday and Sunday. With mostly 
clear skies and southerly winds around 5-10 kt there will be 
virtually no relief available from the heat. Anyone spending any 
amount of time outdoors should make sure to exercise heat 
precautions throughout the weekend. 

The forecast track for Tropical Depression Cristobal, now in far 
southern Mexico, continues to favor a landfall near Louisiana on 
Sunday. While minimal direct impact to North and Central Texas is 
anticipated, we continue to maintain 20-30% PoPs in our far 
eastern counties as we could see an increase in rain chances as 
the tropical system approaches the region Sunday night and Monday. 
We will continue to closely monitor the evolution of Cristobal 
through the weekend as any variation in the track will likely 
necessitate further adjustments to the forecast. 

We are also monitoring the potential for very hot temperatures on
Tuesday. The interaction between the subsidence left behind by 
the remnant low of Cristobal and a dryline mixing eastward across
West Texas continues to support enhanced warming Tuesday
afternoon. The 12Z GFS advances a surface low and its associated
cold front across western North Texas early Tuesday disrupting 
this compressional warming pattern prematurely. Alternatively, the
12Z ECMWF maintains a slower evolution allowing temperatures to 
warm substantially throughout the afternoon. Without consensus on 
the timing of this front we will forgo any significant adjustments
to the temperatures for Tuesday at this time. The eventual passage
of the front will allow drier air to filter into the region and 
temper temperatures through the end of the week.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The main concern with this TAF package is the chance for 
showers/storms overnight tonight. A complex of storms is
approaching the Bowie arrival gate, but will be on a weakening 
trend with the loss of daytime heating. However, outflow winds 
ahead of the system may cause gusty conditions at D10 terminals. 
There is considerable uncertainty in how far south (and east) 
showers/storms will make it. Opted to hold off on VCTS for DFW/DAL
as confidence in lightning is slightly lower for eastern D10 
terminals. All precipitation is expected to come to an end by 
6-8Z. 

Otherwise, VFR will prevail at all TAF sites with southerly winds
near 10 kts or less through the end of the TAF period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  98  75  97  76 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Waco                74  95  72  96  74 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Paris               73  93  72  93  73 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Denton              75  97  72  96  74 /  30   5   0   0   0 
McKinney            74  96  72  96  74 /  20   5   0   0   0 
Dallas              78  98  77  98  76 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             74  95  74  95  74 /  20   5   0   0   0 
Corsicana           74  93  74  94  75 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Temple              71  93  71  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       72  97  71  96  71 /  30   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

18/25