National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLCH
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH
Product Timestamp: 2020-05-26 02:32 UTC
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857 FXUS64 KLCH 260232 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 932 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020 .UPDATE... Convection today has been more diurnally driven and therefore a majority of the activity has dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. In the short term, convective outflow boundary moving across southeast Texas into western Louisiana may initiate a few showers for the remainder of the evening. Overnight, once again the story will be what comes at us from the west, as next short wave moves out of west Texas. Showers and storm are forming around San Antonio and are expected to develop into another MCS feature. Latest CAMs have the main push of this feature heading eastward and south of the forecast area into the northwest Gulf. Still may see some shower and storm activity on the northern end of the feature reaching southeast Texas by daybreak. Will adjust pops and weather accordingly to latest radar observations and hi-res guidance. Rua && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ DISCUSSION... 26/00Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... Pesky Isolated convection reappearing LFT Terminal northward to the east of AEX terminal this early evening. This activity should be short lived as daytime heating goes away. MVFR clouds LFT/ARA with VCSH showers over the next hour...then expect most VFR all terminals through the night. Early in the morning could see MVFR again at BPT/LCH terminals as overnight convection out west of area begins to spread eastward. Showers and thunderstorms expected to redevelop Tuesday morning and spread eastward across the rest of the terminals towards the early afternoon. Moist conditions and an unstable airmass will likely mean another messy day for Tuesday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/ DISCUSSION... Current sfc analysis, along with regional 88D data, shows a wake low left behind this morning's convective system centered over nern TX while water vapor imagery shows a significant shortwave crossing ern TX at this time...the combo of these features is producing numerous showers/storms just to our nw while a convective line is noted developing over the center of the forecast area past hour or so. Otherwise high pressure off the sern CONUS coast continues to ridge wwd over the nrn Gulf with ample moisture and little if any capping allowing for an occasional shower or thunderstorm. For the 2nd straight day, all of the various model data is in agreement with activity waning this evening, although some convection is noted on the upswing back over cntl TX where activity fired up late in the shift yesterday, causing issues for sern TX...for now, am falling for the model blends but will continue to monitor the upstream activity for a potential quick update prior to press time. Regardless of all that, the continuing copious moisture already in place and the approach of another disturbance aloft should lead to another round of convection moving into the far wrn zones by tomorrow morning. Coverage will then expand by late morning and into the afternoon with what little daytime heating we get as forecast soundings continue to indicate a lowering of convective temps with the approach of the main low aloft. Main hazard at this time appears to be brief heavy downpours, locally gusty winds and possibly some small hail. This trend then continues into Wednesday when the system aloft is progged to begin lifting nwd away from the area. With highest QPFs progged to stay to our w/nw, feel we can go another forecast round without issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Elevated POPs, but not the categorical POPs advertised over the next 48 hours, linger beyond mid-week as the area remains moist and unstable with minimal capping...main focus continues to be daytime heating, weak disturbances aloft and potential mesoscale features. MARINE... No headlines are anticipated on the coastal waters through the period at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 82 66 81 / 20 50 70 80 LCH 71 82 68 84 / 20 50 70 60 LFT 72 84 70 83 / 30 50 70 80 BPT 72 81 68 84 / 40 60 60 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...07