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181 FXUS64 KFWD 150028 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 728 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ The main weather highlight in the short term forecast is the increasing thunderstorm chances late Friday afternoon and night across North and Central Texas. An increasing low-level jet will aid in advecting moisture northward and low clouds will blanket the region after midnight. Across the Plains, a line of thunderstorms will develop and begin to track south towards Oklahoma. With persistent southerly flow, another mild and breezy night with overnight lows well above- normal in the low to mid 70s are expected. Friday morning should remain mostly rain/storm-free and cloudy. Rain/storm chances will increase into the 20-30% range along and north of the I-20 corridor Friday afternoon as the cluster of storms approaches from Oklahoma. High res guidance has hinted that this cluster will likely be on a weakening trend by the time it reaches the Red River. As an upper level trough translates east through the day, convection along a dryline across West Texas is expected to develop by late Friday afternoon. The activity will merge into a broken line of thunderstorms and track eastward, providing the better chances for thunderstorms across the region. There will be a threat for damaging wind gusts and small hail as the line moves from west to east overnight. Garcia && .LONG TERM... /Issued 317 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ /Friday Evening Onward/ A series of thunderstorm complexes accompanying an upper low will affect the forecast area Friday through the weekend, with a potential for strong storms and heavy rainfall. The main window for strong/severe storms will be Friday evening/night, while the main flood potential will be late Friday night into Saturday. On Friday evening, our CWA will be positioned in a highly unstable and modestly sheared warm sector with an upper disturbance digging eastward towards the area. Thunderstorms will be ongoing during this time period in the form of a convective complex moving southward from Oklahoma, as well as along the dryline in West Texas. The northern complex would be the first to arrive in North Texas, should it hold together as it advances south of the Red River. It's associated outflow should arc back westward towards the dryline in West Texas where additional convection will be in progress. Increasing convergence along outflows and boundary intersections should allow for rapid upscale growth through the evening hours as activity continues to migrate southeast into the forecast area overnight. Convection during this time should consist almost entirely of linear segments which will pose localized strong/severe wind threats. Hail potential will be limited by convective mode, although isolated instances of marginally severe hail can't be ruled out through this time period. All of this convective activity will be driven by small-scale processes from other ongoing or previous convection, which makes trying to provide detailed forecasts far in advance a futile endeavor. By Saturday morning, the upper low will have cut off and slowed down dramatically while drifting overhead. This should allow for redevelopment to occur throughout the day on Saturday with ascent fueled by the upper low/vort max and perhaps leftover boundaries and MCVs from preceding convection. The amount of convective overturning that occurs with previous activity may have a small effect on destabilization and convective coverage, but am still expecting at least scattered redevelopment Saturday afternoon at a minimum. This activity will likely have the greatest heavy rain and flooding risk due to slower storm motions given the weak mid- level flow in proximity to the upper low. Some cell training could occur, especially across our east/southeast zones, and some flooding concerns may materialize. The severe potential appears quite low on Saturday at this time, but some sub-severe hail could be possible given cold mid-level temperatures associated with the core of the upper low. The greatest coverage should be along and east of I-35, while areas farther west could remain somewhat subsident on the western periphery of the upper low or any remnant MCVs. The low will continue to translate eastward on Sunday, although its speed remains in question. Latest guidance seems to be a bit more progressive than the previous couple of days on sending the low into East Texas which would cutoff most of the forecast area from moisture and lift. Our western zones may be dry most of the day, while any lingering rain tapers off to the east by the afternoon. So, it appears at least a few hours of the weekend may be salvageable for getting outdoors. An elongating meridional upper ridge is expected to develop over the central portion of the CONUS in the wake of the upper low, which should mean a mostly dry first half of next week with temperatures within a few degrees of normal. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through late this evening, but an increasing low-level jet will aid in transporting moisture northward and widespread stratus should develop late tonight across the region. MVFR ceilings will arrive initially at Waco around 9Z and across the Metroplex sites between 10-11Z and persist through midday. All sites should remain free of any convection, a low potential for TS exists across the Metroplex late Friday afternoon as a decaying cluster of storms surge southward from Oklahoma. The better TS chances increase late Friday evening/night as a line of storms approaches from the northwest. For now, I opted not to include a mention of thunder in the extended DFW TAF due to uncertainty in timing, but one will likely be warranted after the 0-3Z timeframe. Otherwise, southerly winds near 15 knots will prevail through the forecast period. Garcia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 89 69 80 67 / 0 30 80 70 30 Waco 72 89 68 78 66 / 0 20 80 90 30 Paris 70 84 69 78 66 / 0 40 80 80 60 Denton 71 89 68 80 66 / 0 40 80 70 30 McKinney 72 88 68 79 66 / 0 40 80 70 40 Dallas 72 90 69 80 68 / 0 30 80 70 40 Terrell 71 87 69 79 66 / 0 30 80 80 50 Corsicana 72 87 70 77 67 / 0 20 70 90 40 Temple 71 89 68 78 66 / 0 20 80 90 30 Mineral Wells 71 90 66 79 63 / 10 30 80 60 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 22/91