070 
FXUS64 KMAF 132337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary concern this forecast period are thunderstorms
currently ongoing INVOF MAF and FST, though activity is moving 
away from the terminals. Gusty/erratic winds are possible at MAF, 
FST, INK, and possibly HOB within the first couple hours of the 
forecast period due to associated outflow boundaries, with wind 
speeds decreasing after sunset later this evening as winds shift 
to the S/SE at all terminals except CNM. All terminals will see a  
W/SW wind shift on Thursday, becoming elevated by late morning
into early afternoon, with VFR conditions prevailing outside of
this evening's storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
More active weather is expected this evening as another upper 
level disturbance resharpens a dryline near the west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. Mid level clouds and isolated showers and 
thunderstorms associated with an earlier disturbance had moved 
east of the region. Weak subsidence behind this disturbance may 
delay storm initiation by an hour or two but strong heating and 
very steep lapse rates should eventually break the cap as the next
disturbance arrives. Although wind shear will be marginal very 
steep mid level lapse rates and cape values in excess of 3000 j/kg
should be more than sufficient to generate the potential for 
severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds across 
west Texas. The best chance for storms will be in the eastern 
Permian Basin in the deepest moisture for the longest period of 
time ahead of the dryline.

Thunderstorms will rapidly move east out of the area by after
midnight tonight. Thursday should more tranquil with significant 
disturbances lacking in the zonal flow aloft. Isolated 
thunderstorms can still not be completely ruled out in the late 
afternoon and early evening across the lower Trans Pecos and 
eastern Permian Basin due to strong heating locally breaking the 
cap along the dryline.

Another active weather day is expected Friday/Friday night across
west Texas as another significant upper level disturbance approaches
the region. Wind shear is forecast to again be marginal but 
progged steep mid level lapse rates and cape values in excess of 
3000 j/kg should be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm 
development.

After Friday the weekend into early next week looks quiet as the 
upper level disturbance stalls just to the east of the area with
upper level ridging forecast over the forecast area. High
temperatures are expected to be near normal with overnight lows
much above normal in moist low level southeast flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  94  69  93 /  30   0  10  30 
Carlsbad                       58  94  59  95 /   0   0   0  10 
Dryden                         69  95  71  92 /  20  10  10  40 
Fort Stockton                  63  93  67  92 /  10  10  10  50 
Guadalupe Pass                 58  82  61  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobbs                          58  91  60  92 /   0   0   0  20 
Marfa                          51  89  53  86 /   0   0   0  30 
Midland Intl Airport           66  94  69  93 /  20   0  10  30 
Odessa                         66  94  68  92 /  20   0  10  30 
Wink                           60  96  64  95 /  10   0   0  30 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84