138 
FXUS62 KJAX 122352
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
752 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

.UPDATE...

No significant changes for the evening update. The northeast to 
east sfc flow today has advected in some additional low level 
moisture to most parts of the area with dewpoints about 5-10 deg 
higher than last night. Temps will moderate further compared to 
this morning, with lows in the mid 50s inland, upper 50s to lower 
60s coast. Will leave in a chance for some patchy fog as winds 
inland drop to near calm overnight. 

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

VFR conditions will likely continue through the TAF period. Some
exception for VQQ with some chance for MVFR vsby around 06Z-10Z. 
In addition, we are likely to see a few low clouds early 
Wednesday, with more scattered to possible broken cumulus field 
after 14Z around 3-4 kft as daytime heating commences. Winds will 
be east- northeast about 4-8 knots early this evening, decreasing 
overnight, then becoming east to southeast about 8 to 12 kt and 
occasionally gusty after 14Z/15Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds currently east-northeast about 10-15 kt, and seas up to 4-5
ft nearshore. Winds and seas a bit higher this evening so will 
update the CWF to reflect latest trends. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [224 PM EDT]...

.Short Term.../through Thursday/...

High pressure will build from the north to the northeast of the 
region this afternoon, and remain to the northeast through Thursday.
This pattern will provide for a prolonged period of onshore flow. 
While cloud cover will be expected due to the moist flow, 
precipitation is not expected. A little moderation in temperatures 
is expected this period. With the onshore flow moving over the 
coastal waters, readings at night will be warmest near the coast, 
while readings during the day will be coolest at the coast.


.Long Term.../Thursday night through Tuesday/...

High pressure will stretch across the region from high pressure to 
the east northeast Thursday night into Friday. Models diverge on
development and track of a northeastward moving low pressure system 
which is expected to pass east of the region over the weekend into 
early next week. GFS is much faster with the low, and well to the 
east. ECMWF is slower and closer to the area. At this point, showers
expected in the onshore flow pattern across NE FL Friday into 
Saturday. Depending on how fast the low moves away and how close it
passes will help determine weather into early next week. If the low 
moves away faster as with GFS, could have cold front move into 
region with convection early in the week. The slower solution 
keeps high pressure ridge extending south across forecast area, 
with heat providing diurnal instability for convection.

Expecting a warming trend through this period.


.Marine...

High pressure will be north of the region Today, then to the
northeast Tonight through Saturday, with a prolonged period of 
onshore flow expected. As low pressure develops to the south, and
tracks to the east of the region later in the period, elevated 
seas will be possible.  

Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate Wednesday
              NE FL: High Wednesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  55  83  60  84  61 /   0  10   0   0   0 
SSI  64  77  67  78  68 /   0  10   0   0   0 
JAX  61  81  65  82  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  65  79  66  80  67 /   0  10   0   0  10 
GNV  58  85  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  59  85  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&